Best Chance for Mid-Majors

Since 1978, only 173 mid-major or nonBCS teams controlled their destiny for a top two regular season finish in the Power Points Standings. That is, each of these teams would have finished in the top two if they had won all of their games and all other results remained unchanged. Listed below is each season’s highest ranked team (based on PPS) among this group along with their FBS record and regular season finishes in the Power Points Standings and AP poll respectively.


1978 UTEP (1-11) 137 NR
1979 Brigham Young (10-0) 1 9
1980 Brigham Young (11-1) 3 14
1981 Miami-Ohio (8-2-1) 16 NR
1982 Brigham Young (8-3) 15 NR
1983 None
1984 Brigham Young (12-0) 2 1
1985 Brigham Young (11-2) 9 9
1986 San Diego State (8-3) 14 NR
1987 Wyoming (10-2) 13 NR
1988 Wyoming (10-1) 5 15
1989 Brigham Young (10-2) 13 19
1990 Brigham Young (10-2) 8 13
1991 Brigham Young (8-3-1) 16 NR
1992 Hawaii (10-2) 9 NR
1993 Louisville (8-3) 17 25
1994 Fresno State (5-7-1) 60 NR
1995 Utah (7-4) 29 NR
1996 Brigham Young (13-1) 4 5
1997 San Diego State (5-7) 69 NR
1998 None
1999 None
2000 None
2001 Fresno State (11-2) 7 20
2002 Colorado State (10-3) 13 23
2003 Miami-Ohio (12-1) 5 14
2004 Louisiana Tech (6-6) 42 NR
2005 None
2006 None
2007 Brigham Young (9-2) 15 19
2008 Buffalo (8-5) 35 NR

Wildcard Simulation

Suppose a 16-team playoff with auto bids becomes a reality. How would the wildcard berths be determined? By objective or subjective means? Listed below are the number of wildcard teams agreed on by the Power Points System and the Associated Press poll for each season since 1978. For the purposes of this post, only current FBS members were considered. Furthermore, the highest ranked member of each conference in the Power Points Standings based on current membership served as automatic qualifiers. This is done to eliminate 11 teams that would qualify no matter how the wildcard teams are determined. From here, the top five remaining teams in both systems are compared. For each season, the teams that the systems disagreed on are listed in parentheses with the teams favored by the Power Points System listed first. The systems agreed on 119 of 155 wildcards (over 31 seasons) which is five teams short of a four out of five average.

1978-5
1979-3 (South Carolina/Wake Forest or Purdue/Washington)
1980-4 (North Carolina or Michigan)
1981-3 (Arizona State/Southern Mississippi or North Carolina/Washington)
1982-3 (Southern California/Florida or West Virginia/Oklahoma)
1983-4 (Clemson or Florida)
1984-4 (Southern California or Maryland)
1985-4 (Alabama or Tennessee)
1986-2 (Washington/Alabama/Ohio State or Nebraska/Texas A&M/Auburn)
1987-4 (Notre Dame or South Carolina)
1988-5
1989-4 (Arkansas or Nebraska)
1990-4 (Southern California or Florida)
1991-4 (Nebraska or Iowa)
1992-4 (Ohio State or Georgia)
1993-4 (Miami-Florida or Wisconsin)
1994-5
1995-5
1996-3 (Washington/North Carolina or Tennessee/Northwestern)
1997-3 (Auburn/Georgia or UCLA/North Carolina)
1998-3 (Texas/Michigan or Florida/Arkansas)
1999-4 (Penn State or Wisconsin)
2000-4 (Kansas State or Nebraska)
2001-4 (Stanford or Maryland)
2002-2 (Notre Dame/Alabama/Michigan or Kansas State/Washington State/Penn State)
2003-4 (Georgia or Tennessee)
2004-4 (Arizona State or Georgia)
2005-4 (Louisiana State or Auburn)
2006-5
2007-4 (Boston College or Southern California)
2008-4 (Pittsburgh or Texas Christian)
AVG-3.8

Mid-Majors (NonBCS) and the Top 16

Listed below are the number of regular season finishes in the top one, top two, top three, and so on for mid-major (nonBCS) teams since 1978 in the Power Points System and Associated Press Poll respectively.


1-1 and 1
2-2 and 1
3-3 and 1
4-7 and 1
5-12 and 3
6-14 and 3
7-18 and 5
8-20 and 5
9-23 and 10
10-27 and 15
11-28 and 17
12-35 and 18
13-42 and 20
14-49 and 25
15-55 and 27
16-64 and 29