Resting Starters Revisited

The threat of college football teams resting starters in late season games once they have clinched a playoff berth remains a popular argument against a large playoff system in that sport. The argument is without merit. Nevertheless, it persists and playoff opponents point to NFL teams resting starters on a frequent basis to support their claim. It is my position that the number of games each team plays and the number of teams in direct competition with each other has more to do with the frequency at which teams are able to rest starters than does the actual existence of a playoff. This is easily demonstrated by comparing the NFL with a no conference/division format to its current two conference/eight division format. For purposes here, I have adopted my own tiebreakers which emphasize how teams finished the season and I have applied these tiebreakers to both formats. Teams are placed by best record, best finish (win/loss streak), best schedule strength, best wins (defeated opponents' records), and best net points. Both formats have the same 15 teams still in contention for a playoff berth if they have not already clinched. Here is how those teams are placed with one week remaining under the no conference/division format followed by their best and worst case scenarios (E = eliminated):

1 Atlanta....... 13 2 0  2  1 3
2 Denver........ 12 3 0 10  1 5
3 Houston....... 12 3 0 -1  1 5
4 Green Bay..... 11 4 0  4  2 9
5 New England... 11 4 0  1  2 9
6 San Francisco. 10 4 1 -1  4 9
7 Seattle....... 10 5 0  4  4 E
8 Baltimore..... 10 5 0  1  4 E
9 Indianapolis.. 10 5 0  1  4 E
10 Washington.... 9 6 0  6  7 E
11 Minnesota..... 9 6 0  3  7 E
12 Cincinnati.... 9 6 0  2  7 E
13 Chicago....... 9 6 0  1  7 E
14 Dallas........ 8 7 0 -1 10 E
15 NY Giants..... 8 7 0 -2 10 E


TOP TWO OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, no teams has clinched homefield throughout the playoffs and five teams are still alive. Under the existing format, one team has clinched throughout and only three teams remain alive.

TOP FOUR OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, only one team has clinched a first round bye while eight others remain alive for a bye. Under the existing format, one team has also clinched but only six teams can still gain a bye.

TOP EIGHT OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, three teams have clinched at least a first round home game while ten others can still do so. Under the existing format, five teams have clinched a first round home game while only seven teams can still do so.

TOP TWELVE OVERALL SEEDS.
Under the No C/D format, six teams have clinched playoff berths while nine more remain in contention for the final six berths. Under the existing format, nine teams have clinched playoff berths while six teams remain in contention for the final three berths.


Here we have the same number of teams playing the same number of games but one format places all teams in direct competition with each other at all times while the other format separates teams into conferences and divisions thereby reducing the number of teams in direct competition and allowing for teams to clinch playoff berths, homefield advantage, and byes much sooner. While its unlikely that NFL would ever consider eliminating conferences and divisions, the point here is that the setup has more to do with the frequency of teams being able to rest starters than the simple fact that the NFL has a larger playoff in comparison to college football. When I addressed this issue in a previous post, I had applied these rules to the previous 23 NFL seasons and only found nine teams that did not have a playoff berth, bye, or home game to gain/lose in the final weekend excluding teams eliminated from playoff contention. In at least one instance, a team could go from gaining homefield advantage to missing the playoffs altogether based on the final weekend's results. Also, based on a top 16 college football playoff determined by the Power Points Standings, only five teams in 32 seasons (at the time) had nothing to gain/lose in final weekend and all benefited from an extra game they likely wouldn't be afforded under ideal circumstances. 

The bottom line is that larger playoffs are not to blame for sandbagging. 

Top 4 Playoff: Power Points vs. AP Part II

Listed below for each season are the disputed top four teams between the Power Points Standings and the AP Poll. Teams favored by the Power Points System are listed first.

1978 Notre Dame > Oklahoma
1979 BYU, Arkansas > Ohio State, Alabama
1980 BYU, Notre Dame > Georgia, Oklahoma
1981 Pittsburgh, Penn State, Miami > Georgia, Alabama, Nebraska
1982 UCLA > SMU
1983 BYU > Illinois
1984 None
1985 Florida, Michigan > Miami, Iowa
1986 LSU > Oklahoma
1987 Nebraska > Oklahoma
1988 USC, Nebraska > West Virginia, Florida State
1989 Tennessee > Miami
1990 None
1991 None
1992 None
1993 Florida > Notre Dame
1994 Florida, Alabama > Miami, Colorado
1995 None
1996 BYU > Ohio State
1997 None
1998 Texas A&M, UCLA > Ohio State, Kansas State
1999 Alabama > Wisconsin (BCS favored Alabama > Wisconsin)
2000 Florida > Washington
2001 Tennessee > Oregon
2002 USC > Iowa (BCS favored USC > Iowa)
2003 Ohio State > Michigan
2004 Texas > California (BCS favored Texas > California)
2005 None
2006 Boise State > LSU
2007 Virginia Tech, Missouri > Ohio State, Georgia (BCS favored Virginia Tech > Georgia)
2008 Utah > Alabama
2009 Florida, Boise State > TCU, Cincinnati
2010 Oklahoma, Boise State > Oregon, Wisconsin
2011 Boise State > Alabama
2012 Stanford > Alabama

Top 4 Playoff: Power Points vs AP Part I

Listed below for each season are the number of top four matches between the Power Points Standings and AP Poll, AP rank of the top four teams in the Power Points Standings, and the fewest game results removed from matching the AP top four in no particular order(ex. in 1978, matching all AP top four teams is possible by changing the outcome of one game). Over 35 seasons, the Power Points Standings and the AP Poll have agreed on 101 of 140 teams (72%) which is just under a three for four average per year. During the first four years of the FBS/I-A era, the two methods agreed on only 8 of 16 top four teams. Since then, the numbers are 93 of 124 (75%) which is exactly a three for four average. It should be noted that these results are based on FBS games only without the benefit of teams knowingly competing according to Power Points System rules and without the benefit of teams playing equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only. On average, the Power Points Standings are 1.6 game results removed from matching the AP top four teams.


1978 : 3 : 1 2 3 10 : 1
1979 : 2 : 1 4 6 9 : 2
1980 : 2 : 2 3 7 14 : 4
1981 : 1 : 1 7 9 10 : 3
1982 : 3 : 1 2 3 5 : 1
1983 : 3 : 1 2 3 9 : 1
1984 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1985 : 2 : 1 3 5 6 : 2
1986 : 3 : 1 2 4 5 : 1
1987 : 3 : 2 3 4 5 : 1
1988 : 2 : 1 2 5 6 : 6
1989 : 3 : 1 3 4 8 : 1
1990 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1991 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1992 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1993 : 3 : 1 2 3 8 : 2
1994 : 2 : 1 2 5 6 : 2
1995 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1996 : 3 : 1 2 3 5 : 1
1997 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
1998 : 2 : 1 2 6 8 : 2
1999 : 3 : 1 2 3 5 : 5
2000 : 3 : 1 2 3 7 : 1
2001 : 3 : 1 3 4 8 : 1
2002 : 3 : 1 2 4 5 : 2
2003 : 3 : 1 2 3 7 : 1
2004 : 3 : 1 2 3 6 : 1
2005 : 4 : 1 2 3 4 : 0
2006 : 3 : 1 2 3 9 : 1
2007 : 2 : 2 3 5 7 : 3
2008 : 3 : 1 2 3 7 : 2
2009 : 2 : 1 2 5 6 : 2
2010 : 2 : 1 3 9 10 : 3
2011 : 3 : 1 3 4 8 : 2
2012 : 3 : 1 3 4 8 : 1

CHAMPIONS ONLY FOUR TEAM FORMAT

The forthcoming playoff is expected to include the top four teams with added emphasis on winning a conference title but no requirement to do so. Reasons for opposing a champions only format include thinking the best four teams should advance, differences between the conferences, and not wanting low ranked champions to qualify. I think these reasons are shortsighted and much ado about nothing. For starters, there is nothing wrong with a "best" four team being eliminated earlier in the process by another. The differences in conferences do not punish strong leagues. If you expect to win a national title, you shouldn't have any objection to making and winning a conference title. And if you do that, you reward yourself by eliminating your toughest competition earlier and advancing to a presumably easier playoff. And concerns over low ranked champions is minimal as the top four champions usually reside inside the top six after conference title games are played.

That said, if a champions only format is done right, conference championship weekend has the potential to serve as a quarterfinal round. Based on how I would set it up, nine teams would still be in the playoff hunt on CCG weekend this year. In previous years, as many as 12 teams still had a shot. Ultimately, I would prefer all teams belonged to a conference but to accommodate independents, I created a Wildcard Championship Game matching the top two teams that did not qualify for a league title game. Under this format, each league has a title game matching the top two teams (divisions are eliminated) based on conference record with ties broken by the Power Points Standings. Conference championship results are included in the Power Points Standings and the top four champions advance to the playoffs. Listed below are the title game qualifiers with their matchups followed by the playoff scenarios for all mathematically eligible teams. For purposes here, postseason bans are ignored.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME TEAMS
1 -Notre Dame vs South Carolina
2 -Florida vs Alabama
3 -Ohio State vs Nebraska
4 -Stanford vs Oregon
5 -Oregon vs Stanford
6 -Kansas State vs Oklahoma
7 -Alabama vs Florida
8 -Nebraska vs Ohio State
9 -South Carolina vs Notre Dame
10 -Oklahoma vs Kansas State
14 -San Jose State vs Utah State
15 -Clemson vs Florida State
16 -Kent State vs Northern Illinois
19 -Florida State vs Clemson
22 -Boise State vs Fresno State
23 -Utah State vs San Jose State
24 -Arkansas State vs Louisiana-Lafayette
25 -Louisville vs Cincinnati
26 -Fresno State vs Boise State
27 -Northern Illinois vs Kent State
33 -Cincinnati vs Louisville
36 -Central Florida vs Tulsa
37 -Tulsa vs Central Florida
51 -Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State

PLAYOFF SCENARIOS
Notre Dame: Win
Florida: Win
Ohio State: Win
Stanford: Win
Oregon: Win
Kansas State: Win plus Notre Dame, Florida, or Ohio State loss
Alabama: Win plus Notre Dame, Ohio State, or Kansas State loss
Nebraska: Win plus Notre Dame or Kansas State loss
South Carolina: Win plus Kansas State loss

2012 Power Points Standings thru 12-08

1 -Notre Dame 83
2 -Florida 75
3 -Ohio State 71
4 -Stanford 70
5 -Alabama 68
6 -Oregon 60
7 -Kansas State 59
8 -South Carolina 53
9 -Oklahoma 52
10 -Louisiana State 51
11 -Georgia 50
12 -Texas A&M 50
13 -Nebraska 49
14 -San Jose State 47
15 -Clemson 44
16 -Florida State 43
17 -Northern Illinois 42
18 -Oregon State 41
19 -Kent State 40
20 -Ball State 37
21 -Michigan 36
22 -Boise State 35
23 -UCLA 35
24 -Utah State 34
25 -Arkansas State 33
26 -Louisville 32
27 -Fresno State 32
28 -Tulsa 31
29 -Penn State 30
30 -Toledo 29
31 -Texas 29
32 -Northwestern 28
33 -San Diego State 28
34 -Cincinnati 27
35 -Louisiana Tech 27
36 -Rutgers 26
37 -Wisconsin 25
38 -Southern California 21
39 -Arizona 21
40 -Central Florida 20
41 -Navy 20
42 -Vanderbilt 19
43 -Oklahoma State 19
44 -Mississippi State 18
45 -Baylor 18
46 -Michigan State 18
47 -Washington 16
48 -North Carolina 15
49 -Miami-Florida 15
50 -Texas Christian 14
51 -Louisiana-Lafayette 13
52 -West Virginia 13
53 -Syracuse 13
54 -Louisiana-Monroe 12
55 -Middle Tennessee State 12
56 -Texas Tech 12
57 -Brigham Young 10
58 -Bowling Green 9
59 -East Carolina 8
60 -Iowa State 7
61 -Missouri 6
62 -Ohio 5
63 -Mississippi 5
64 -Virginia Tech 4
65 -North Carolina State 3
66 -Arizona State 1
67 -Western Kentucky 1
68 -Duke 0
69 -Purdue -2
70 -Pittsburgh -2
71 -Georgia Tech -2
72 -Nevada -3
73 -UTSA -5
74 -Tennessee -6
75 -Minnesota -8
76 -Arkansas -9
77 -Southern Methodist -10
78 -Wake Forest -11
79 -Rice -12
80 -Central Michigan -13
81 -Air Force -13
82 -Utah -15
83 -Connecticut -15
84 -Troy -16
85 -Iowa -16
86 -Houston -17
87 -Miami-Ohio -18
88 -Marshall -20
89 -North Texas -20
90 -Buffalo -20
91 -Temple -21
92 -California -21
93 -Auburn -22
94 -Indiana -24
95 -Virginia -24
96 -South Florida -24
97 -Wyoming -26
98 -Texas State -27
99 -Colorado State -27
100 -Maryland -29
101 -Western Michigan -31
102 -Kentucky -31
103 -Florida International -33
104 -Memphis -34
105 -Florida Atlantic -35
106 -Washington State -38
107 -UTEP -40
108 -UAB -40
109 -Illinois -40
110 -Eastern Michigan -40
111 -Hawaii -42
112 -Boston College -43
113 -Army -43
114 -New Mexico -44
115 -Tulane -45
116 -Kansas -45
117 -Idaho -52
118 -Colorado -53
119 -UNLV -56
120 -South Alabama -58
121 -Akron -59
122 -Massachusetts -61
123 -Southern Mississippi -65
124 -New Mexico State -66

The Top 12

The Power Points Standings and the AP Poll agree on the top 12 teams but when comparing those teams in pairs, the two methods disagree on their order 15 times out of 66 possible pairs. The disputed pairs are listed below with team placed higher in the Power Points Standings listed first. The number in parentheses represents the number of AP pollsters that agreed with the Power Points System.

Florida > Ohio State (25)
Florida > Alabama (1)
Ohio State > Alabama (14)
Stanford > Alabama (0)
Stanford > Oregon (14)
Stanford > Kansas State (21)
Stanford > Georgia (14)
Kansas State > Georgia (25)
South Carolina > LSU (3)
South Carolina > Georgia (4)
South Carolina > Texas A&M (5)
Oklahoma > LSU (1)
Oklahoma > Georgia (1)
Oklahoma > Texas A&M (2)
LSU > Georgia (9)

Power Points, BCS, AP Poll, and Coaches' Poll

The numbers to the left are each team's position in the current Power Points Standings. The first number is their position among all 124 FBS teams. The second number is their position among the 119 FBS teams considered by the BCS Standings and Coaches' Poll. The numbers to the right are each team's position in the BCS Standings, AP Poll, and Coaches' Poll respectively. Ties in  those three are awarded to the highest placed team in Power Points Standings.


1 1 -Notre Dame 1 1 1
2 2 -Florida 3 3 4
3 X -Ohio State X 4 X
4 3 -Stanford 6 8 8
5 4 -Alabama 2 2 2
6 5 -Oregon 4 5 3
7 6 -Kansas State 5 7 6
8 7 -South Carolina 10 11 10
9 8 -Oklahoma 11 12 11
10 9 -Louisiana State 8 9 7
11 10 -Georgia 7 6 5
12 11 -Texas A&M 9 10 9
13 12 -Nebraska 16 23 21
14 13 -San Jose State 24 24 24
15 14 -Clemson 14 14 13
16 15 -Florida State 12 13 12
17 16 -Northern Illinois 15 16 16
18 17 -Oregon State 13 15 14
19 18 -Kent State 25 25 26
20 19 -Ball State 50 40 X
21 20 -Michigan 18 19 22
22 21 -Boise State 19 20 15
23 22 -UCLA 17 17 19
24 23 -Utah State 22 18 20
25 24 -Arkansas State 37 36 33
26 25 -Louisville 21 22 18
27 26 -Fresno State 35 31 30
28 27 -Tulsa 33 38 29
29 28 -Toledo 43 X X
30 29 -Texas 23 29 25
31 X -Penn State X 26 X
32 30 -Northwestern 20 21 17
33 31 -San Diego State 36 30 32
34 32 -Cincinnati 34 32 28
35 33 -Louisiana Tech 39 X 37
36 34 -Rutgers 32 39 31
37 35 -Wisconsin 26 28 23
38 36 -Southern California 31 37 38
39 37 -Arizona 30 X X
40 38 -Central Florida 44 X X
41 39 -Vanderbilt 28 27 27
42 40 -Oklahoma State 27 33 34
43 41 -Mississippi State 38 X 35
44 42 -Navy 56 X X
45 43 -Baylor 29 34 X
46 44 -Michigan State 52 X X
47 45 -Washington 48 X X
48 X -North Carolina X 41 X
49 X -Miami-Florida X X X
50 46 -Texas Christian 40 35 X
51 47 -Louisiana-Lafayette 57 X X
52 48 -West Virginia 46 42 X
53 49 -Syracuse 42 X X
54 50 -Louisiana-Monroe 47 X X
55 51 -Middle Tennessee State 64 X X
56 52 -Texas Tech 49 X X
57 53 -Brigham Young 55 X X
58 54 -Bowling Green 62 X X
59 55 -East Carolina 45 X X
60 56 -Iowa State 51 X X
61 57 -Missouri 54 X X
62 58 -Ohio 67 X X
63 59 -Mississippi 53 X X
64 60 -Virginia Tech 66 X X
65 61 -North Carolina State 63 X X
66 62 -Arizona State 41 X 36
67 63 -Western Kentucky 72 X X
68 64 -Duke 68 X X
69 65 -Purdue 58 X X
70 66 -Pittsburgh 69 X X
71 67 -Georgia Tech 70 X X
72 68 -Nevada 74 X X
73 X -UTSA X X X
74 69 -Tennessee 59 X X
75 70 -Minnesota 61 X X
76 71 -Arkansas 65 X X
77 72 -Southern Methodist 78 X X
78 73 -Wake Forest 75 X X
79 74 -Air Force 85 X X
80 75 -Rice 83 X X
81 76 -Central Michigan 79 X X
82 77 -Utah 60 X X
83 78 -Connecticut 80 X X
84 79 -Iowa 71 X X
85 80 -Troy 86 X X
86 81 -Houston 91 X X
87 82 -Miami-Ohio 89 X X
88 83 -Marshall 95 X X
89 84 -North Texas 92 X X
90 85 -Buffalo 93 X X
91 86 -Temple 84 X X
92 87 -California 73 X X
93 88 -Auburn 76 X X
94 89 -Indiana 77 X X
95 90 -Virginia 81 X X
96 91 -South Florida 88 X X
97 92 -Wyoming 96 X X
98 93 -Texas State 100 X X
99 94 -Colorado State 98 X X
100 95 -Maryland 90 X X
101 96 -Western Michigan 97 X X
102 97 -Kentucky 82 X X
103 98 -Florida International 102 X X
104 99 -Memphis 101 X X
105 100 -Florida Atlantic 103 X X
106 101 -Washington State 87 X X
107 102 -Army 109 X X
108 103 -UTEP 106 X X
109 104 -UAB 110 X X
110 105 -Illinois 99 X X
111 106 -Eastern Michigan 105 X X
112 107 -Hawaii 111 X X
113 108 -Boston College 104 X X
114 109 -New Mexico 107 X X
115 110 -Tulane 112 X X
116 111 -Kansas 94 X X
117 112 -Idaho 114 X X
118 113 -Colorado 108 X X
119 114 -UNLV 113 X X
120 115 -South Alabama 115 X X
121 116 -Akron 118 X X
122 117 -Massachusetts 116 X X
123 118 -Southern Mississippi 119 X X
124 119 -New Mexico State 117 X X

Playoffs: Power Points System vs. AP Poll

Based on the current Power Points Standings and the final regular season AP Poll, here is a list of the disputed qualifiers for all playoff fields from two teams through 16 teams. Teams favored by the Power Points System are listed first.

2-Florida > Alabama
3-Ohio State > Alabama
4-Stanford > Alabama
5-Stanford > Oregon
6-Stanford > Georgia
7-Stanford > Georgia
8-South Carolina > Georgia
9-South Carolina/Oklahoma > Georgia/LSU
10-South Carolina/Oklahoma > Georgia/Texas A&M
11-Oklahoma > Texas A&M
12-None
13-Nebraska > Florida State
14-Nebraska/San Jose State > Florida State/Clemson
15-Nebraska/San Jose State > Florida State/Oregon State
16-Nebraska/San Jose State > Oregon State/Northern Illinois

2012 Power Points Standings thru 12-01

1 -Notre Dame 82
2 -Florida 75
3 -Ohio State 71
4 -Stanford 70
5 -Alabama 68
6 -Oregon 60
7 -Kansas State 59
8 -South Carolina 53
9 -Oklahoma 52
10 -Louisiana State 51
11 -Georgia 50
12 -Texas A&M 50
13 -Nebraska 49
14 -San Jose State 46
15 -Clemson 44
16 -Florida State 43
17 -Northern Illinois 42
18 -Oregon State 41
19 -Kent State 40
20 -Ball State 37
21 -Michigan 36
22 -Boise State 35
23 -UCLA 35
24 -Utah State 34
25 -Arkansas State 33
26 -Louisville 32
27 -Fresno State 32
28 -Tulsa 31
29 -Toledo 29
30 -Texas 29
31 -Penn State 29
32 -Northwestern 28
33 -San Diego State 28
34 -Cincinnati 27
35 -Louisiana Tech 27
36 -Rutgers 26
37 -Wisconsin 25
38 -Southern California 21
39 -Arizona 21
40 -Central Florida 20
41 -Vanderbilt 19
42 -Oklahoma State 19
43 -Mississippi State 18
44 -Navy 18
45 -Baylor 18
46 -Michigan State 18
47 -Washington 16
48 -North Carolina 15
49 -Miami-Florida 15
50 -Texas Christian 14
51 -Louisiana-Lafayette 13
52 -West Virginia 13
53 -Syracuse 13
54 -Louisiana-Monroe 12
55 -Middle Tennessee State 12
56 -Texas Tech 12
57 -Brigham Young 10
58 -Bowling Green 9
59 -East Carolina 8
60 -Iowa State 7
61 -Missouri 6
62 -Ohio 5
63 -Mississippi 5
64 -Virginia Tech 4
65 -North Carolina State 3
66 -Arizona State 1
67 -Western Kentucky 1
68 -Duke 0
69 -Purdue -2
70 -Pittsburgh -2
71 -Georgia Tech -2
72 -Nevada -3
73 -UTSA -5
74 -Tennessee -6
75 -Minnesota -8
76 -Arkansas -9
77 -Southern Methodist -10
78 -Wake Forest -11
79 -Air Force -12
80 -Rice -12
81 -Central Michigan -13
82 -Utah -15
83 -Connecticut -15
84 -Iowa -16
85 -Troy -17
86 -Houston -17
87 -Miami-Ohio -18
88 -Marshall -20
89 -North Texas -20
90 -Buffalo -20
91 -Temple -21
92 -California -21
93 -Auburn -22
94 -Indiana -24
95 -Virginia -24
96 -South Florida -24
97 -Wyoming -26
98 -Texas State -27
99 -Colorado State -27
100 -Maryland -29
101 -Western Michigan -31
102 -Kentucky -31
103 -Florida International -33
104 -Memphis -34
105 -Florida Atlantic -35
106 -Washington State -38
107 -Army -39
108 -UTEP -40
109 -UAB -40
110 -Illinois -40
111 -Eastern Michigan -40
112 -Hawaii -42
113 -Boston College -42
114 -New Mexico -44
115 -Tulane -45
116 -Kansas -45
117 -Idaho -52
118 -Colorado -53
119 -UNLV -56
120 -South Alabama -58
121 -Akron -59
122 -Massachusetts -61
123 -Southern Mississippi -65
124 -New Mexico State -66