Sunday, January 26, 2014

Disputed Top Four Pairs

The Power Points System and AP Poll disagreed on 41 of 144 top four teams since 1978. The 41 disputed teams make 67 disputed pairs. Those pairs are listed below with PPS favored teams listed first. (A)= Coaches, Harris, and/or BCS Standings agreed with the PPS. (R) = The order of teams listed is reversed in prorated version of Power Point Standings which simulates equal game schedules.

1978 Notre Dame Oklahoma
1979 BYU USC
1979 BYU Alabama
1979 Arkansas USC
1979 Arkansas Alabama
1980 BYU Georgia
1980 BYU Oklahoma
1980 Notre Dame Georgia
1980 Notre Dame Oklahoma
1981 Pittsburgh Georgia
1981 Pittsburgh Nebraska
1981 Pittsburgh Alabama
1981 Penn State Georgia
1981 Penn State Nebraska
1981 Penn State Alabama
1981 Miami Georgia
1981 Miami Nebraska
1981 Miami Alabama
1982 UCLA SMU
1983 BYU Illinois
1985 Florida Iowa
1985 Florida Miami
1985 Michigan Iowa (R)
1985 Michigan Miami
1986 LSU Oklahoma
1987 Nebraska Oklahoma (R)
1988 USC West Virginia
1988 USC Florida State
1988 Nebraska West Virginia
1988 Nebraska Florida State (R)
1989 Tennessee Miami
1993 Florida Notre Dame
1994 Florida Colorado (A)
1994 Florida Miami (R)
1994 Alabama Colorado
1994 Alabama Miami
1996 BYU Ohio State (R)
1998 Texas A&M Ohio State
1998 Texas A&M Kansas State
1998 UCLA Ohio State
1998 UCLA Kansas State
1999 Alabama Wisconsin (A)
2000 Florida Washington (R)
2001 Tennessee Oregon
2002 USC Iowa (A)
2003 Ohio State Michigan
2004 Texas California (A)
2006 Boise State LSU
2007 Virginia Tech Ohio State
2007 Virginia Tech Georgia (A)
2007 Missouri Ohio State (R)
2007 Missouri Georgia
2008 Utah Alabama
2009 Florida Cincinnati (R)
2009 Florida TCU
2009 Boise State Cincinnati (R)
2009 Boise State TCU (R)
2010 Oklahoma Oregon (R)
2010 Oklahoma Wisconsin
2010 Boise State Oregon (R)
2010 Boise State Wisconsin
2011 Boise State Alabama (R)
2012 Stanford Alabama (R)
2013 Stanford Michigan State
2013 Stanford Alabama
2013 Ohio State Michigan State
2013 Ohio State Alabama

Power Points Top Four

In a perfect world, all FBS teams would play equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and knowingly compete according to the rules of the Power Points System. That said, without the benefit of equal or equal maximum game schedules and teams knowing the rules in play, listed below are the Power Points System's top four teams based on FBS games only for the past 36 seasons. 103 of the 144 teams listed finished in the AP top four. Among the 41 PPS favored teams that missed the AP top four, 19 won more games versus AP ranked teams than did the AP favored teams they replaced. Another eight won equal or more games versus AP ranked teams. Overall, 130 of 144 teams listed below finished in the AP top four and/or won equal or more games versus AP ranked teams that did the AP top four teams they replaced.

The 41 disputed top four finishes between the PPS and AP make for 67 disputed pairs. PPS favored teams hold a 34-19 advantage in most wins versus AP ranked teams with 14 pairs tied. Among the tied pairs, PPS favored teams own an 8-2-4 advantage based on average rank of AP ranked teams defeated.

Again, it is best if all teams play equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules to ensure equal maximum power points possible which has not been the case. For example, among the 67 disputed pairs, PPS favored teams played more games 36 times compared to four for AP favored teams with 27 pairs playing equal games. In some instances, an AP favored team might have become a PPS favored team with a low value win.

1978 Southern California Penn State Alabama Notre Dame
1979 Brigham Young Florida State Arkansas Ohio State
1980 Florida State Pittsburgh Brigham Young Notre Dame
1981 Clemson Pittsburgh Penn State Miami
1982 Georgia Penn State Nebraska UCLA
1983 Auburn Nebraska Texas Brigham Young
1984 Florida Brigham Young Washington Oklahoma
1985 Penn State Oklahoma Florida Michigan
1986 Penn State Michigan Miami Louisiana State
1987 Miami Florida State Nebraska Syracuse
1988 Notre Dame Southern California Miami Nebraska
1989 Notre Dame Colorado Tennessee Michigan
1990 Colorado Texas Miami Georgia Tech
1991 Miami Washington Florida Michigan
1992 Alabama Miami Texas A&M Florida State
1993 Florida State Nebraska Florida West Virginia
1994 Nebraska Penn State Florida Alabama
1995 Florida Nebraska Northwestern Ohio State
1996 Florida State Arizona State Florida Brigham Young
1997 Tennessee Michigan Nebraska Florida State
1998 Florida State Tennessee Texas A&M UCLA
1999 Florida State Alabama Nebraska Virginia Tech
2000 Oklahoma Florida State Miami Florida
2001 Miami Nebraska Tennessee Colorado
2002 Ohio State Miami Georgia Southern California
2003 Oklahoma Louisiana State Southern California Ohio State
2004 Oklahoma Southern California Auburn Texas
2005 Southern California Texas Penn State Ohio State
2006 Florida Michigan Ohio State Boise State
2007 Louisiana State Virginia Tech Oklahoma Missouri
2008 Oklahoma Texas Florida Utah
2009 Alabama Texas Florida Boise State
2010 Auburn Oklahoma Texas Christian Boise State
2011 Louisiana State Oklahoma State Boise State Stanford
2012 Notre Dame Ohio State Stanford Florida
2013 Auburn Florida State Stanford Ohio State

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Fixing the College Football Playoff

The first College Football Playoff is now a year away and here is how I would fix it before it ever gets here.

1-All FBS teams play equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only.
2-Nationally, teams place most to least power points, net wins, schedule strength, and net points.
3-All FBS conferences hold a league championship game matching the top two teams (divisions are eliminated).
4-A wildcard game matching the top two teams not participating in a league title game is held during championship weekend. The winner of this game automatically qualifies for a New Year's Six bowl and is the only non-league champion eligible for the playoffs.
5-The top four teams in the national standings among the ten league champions and one wildcard champion qualify for the playoffs.

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

2013 Power Points Standings - BOWL CHAMPIONS

Bowl Champions are listed highest to lowest finish in final Power Points Standings. The numbers to the right of each team's name are its final rank among bowl winners in the Associated Press and Coaches polls respectively.

1 -Florida State 1 1
2 -Missouri 4 4
3 -Michigan State 2 2
4 -South Carolina 3 3
5 -Central Florida 8 8
6 -Oklahoma 5 5
7 -Clemson 6 6
8 -Louisville 10 10
9 -UCLA 11 11
10 -Oregon 7 7
11 -Southern California 13 13
12 -Texas A&M 12 12
13 -Notre Dame 14 15
14 -Louisiana State 9 9
15 -Washington 16 17
16 -Mississippi 19 21
17 -Nebraska 17 16
18 -North Texas NR 23t
19 -East Carolina 23t 22
20 -Mississippi State 25 NR
21 -Vanderbilt 15 14
22 -Navy 22 26t
23 -Utah State 23t 23t
24 -Arizona 21 23t
25 -Texas Tech 18 19
26 -Marshall NR 18
27 -Louisiana-Lafayette NR 26t
28 -Kansas State 20 20
29 -Pittsburgh NR NR
30 -Arkansas State NR NR
31 -North Carolina NR NR
32 -Syracuse NR NR
33 -San Diego State NR NR
34 -Oregon State NR NR
35 -Colorado State NR NR

2013 Power Points Standings thru 01-06

ALL GAMES 
1 -Florida State 86
2 -Auburn 80
3 -Missouri 71
4 -Stanford 70
5 -Michigan State 69
6 -South Carolina 64
7 -Central Florida 63
8 -Oklahoma 62
9 -Ohio State 60
10 -Baylor 59
11 -Alabama 56
12 -Clemson 55
13 -Arizona State 53
14 -Louisville 51
15 -UCLA 51
16 -Oregon 49
17 -Oklahoma State 47
18 -Southern California 46
19 -Texas A&M 45
20 -Notre Dame 44
21 -Fresno State 42
22 -Louisiana State 41
23 -Northern Illinois 37
24 -Duke 35
25 -Washington 34
26 -Georgia 34
27 -Virginia Tech 31
28 -Miami-Florida 29
29 -Mississippi 28
30 -Rice 27
31 -Wisconsin 27
32 -Texas 26
33 -Nebraska 24
34 -North Texas 24
35 -East Carolina 23
36 -Brigham Young 23
37 -Mississippi State 23
38 -Iowa 22
39 -Vanderbilt 21
40 -Navy 21
41 -Utah State 21
42 -Arizona 20
43 -Houston 20
44 -Ball State 19
45 -Minnesota 19
46 -Michigan 19
47 -Bowling Green 18
48 -Texas Tech 18
49 -Marshall 17
50 -Louisiana-Lafayette 16
51 -Kansas State 16
52 -Pittsburgh 16
53 -Penn State 15
54 -Arkansas State 14
55 -Toledo 14
56 -North Carolina 12
57 -Western Kentucky 11
58 -Boise State 10
59 -Syracuse 10
60 -UTSA 9
61 -San Diego State 7
62 -Georgia Tech 7
63 -Oregon State 5
64 -Boston College 4
65 -Cincinnati 3
66 -Middle Tennessee State 3
67 -Tulane 3
68 -San Jose State 2
69 -Tennessee 2
70 -Utah 1
71 -Buffalo 0
72 -Ohio 0
73 -Louisiana-Monroe 0
74 -Washington State -2
75 -Indiana -2
76 -UNLV -3
77 -Maryland -5
78 -South Alabama -5
79 -Florida Atlantic -7
80 -Troy -8
81 -Colorado State -12
82 -Rutgers -12
83 -Northwestern -14
84 -Akron -14
85 -Florida -14
86 -Texas State -17
87 -Wake Forest -19
88 -Central Michigan -20
89 -Texas Christian -22
90 -Nevada -23
91 -Southern Methodist -24
92 -Illinois -24
93 -Colorado -26
94 -Wyoming -27
95 -Kent State -27
96 -Tulsa -27
97 -West Virginia -29
98 -Arkansas -29
99 -North Carolina State -31
100 -Kansas -35
101 -Iowa State -36
102 -Memphis -36
103 -Virginia -36
104 -Connecticut -40
105 -South Florida -40
106 -New Mexico -41
107 -Kentucky -41
108 -Purdue -46
109 -UAB -50
110 -Louisiana Tech -51
111 -Eastern Michigan -51
112 -California -51
113 -Army -53
114 -Temple -54
115 -New Mexico State -56
116 -Air Force -56
117 -Hawaii -56
118 -UTEP -57
119 -Idaho -57
120 -Western Michigan -62
121 -Southern Mississippi -63
122 -Florida International -64
123 -Massachusetts -65
124 -Miami-Ohio -76
125 -Georgia State -80

FBS GAMES ONLY
1 -Florida State 74
2 -Auburn 70
3 -Stanford 62
4 -Michigan State 61
5 -Missouri 61
6 -Central Florida 56
7 -Oklahoma 55
8 -South Carolina 55
9 -Baylor 53
10 -Ohio State 52
11 -Alabama 47
12 -Arizona State 46
13 -Clemson 45
14 -Louisville 44
15 -Oklahoma State 42
16 -Oregon 41
17 -UCLA 41
18 -Texas A&M 39
19 -Southern California 38
20 -Notre Dame 37
21 -Fresno State 36
22 -Louisiana State 33
23 -Northern Illinois 29
24 -Georgia 28
25 -Duke 26
26 -Washington 26
27 -Miami-Florida 23
28 -Virginia Tech 23
29 -Kansas State 22
30 -Mississippi 22
31 -Rice 21
32 -Texas 21
33 -North Texas 20
34 -Wisconsin 20
35 -Nebraska 19
36 -East Carolina 18
37 -Iowa 18
38 -Mississippi State 18
39 -Houston 17
40 -Brigham Young 16
41 -Vanderbilt 15
42 -Navy 15
43 -Utah State 15
44 -Michigan 15
45 -Marshall 14
46 -San Diego State 13
47 -Arizona 13
48 -Texas Tech 13
49 -Minnesota 13
50 -Ball State 12
51 -Bowling Green 12
52 -Pittsburgh 12
53 -Louisiana-Lafayette 11
54 -Oregon State 10
55 -Arkansas State 10
56 -Toledo 10
57 -Penn State 9
58 -Boise State 7
59 -Western Kentucky 6
60 -UTSA 6
61 -North Carolina 6
62 -Syracuse 4
63 -Georgia Tech 2
64 -South Alabama 1
65 -Tulane 1
66 -Middle Tennessee State 0
67 -Tennessee 0
68 -Cincinnati -1
69 -San Jose State -1
70 -Buffalo -2
71 -Boston College -2
72 -Utah -2
73 -Ohio -3
74 -Louisiana-Monroe -3
75 -Washington State -4
76 -Indiana -5
77 -UNLV -6
78 -Florida -7
79 -Maryland -9
80 -Florida Atlantic -10
81 -Troy -11
82 -Rutgers -14
83 -Colorado State -16
84 -Akron -16
85 -Northwestern -17
86 -Texas State -18
87 -Central Michigan -22
88 -Wake Forest -22
89 -Texas Christian -23
90 -Nevada -24
91 -Southern Methodist -25
92 -Iowa State -26
93 -Illinois -26
94 -Kent State -27
95 -Colorado -27
96 -Wyoming -28
97 -Tulsa -28
98 -West Virginia -29
99 -Arkansas -29
100 -Connecticut -30
101 -South Florida -30
102 -North Carolina State -33
103 -Kansas -35
104 -Memphis -35
105 -Virginia -37
106 -Kentucky -40
107 -New Mexico -42
108 -Temple -43
109 -Idaho -46
110 -Georgia State -46
111 -Purdue -46
112 -UAB -50
113 -California -50
114 -Louisiana Tech -51
115 -Western Michigan -51
116 -Eastern Michigan -51
117 -Massachusetts -52
118 -Florida International -53
119 -Army -54
120 -New Mexico State -55
121 -Hawaii -55
122 -Air Force -56
123 -UTEP -58
124 -Southern Mississippi -63
125 -Miami-Ohio -75