Since 1978, only 173 mid-major or nonBCS teams controlled their destiny for a top two regular season finish in the Power Points Standings. That is, each of these teams would have finished in the top two if they had won all of their games and all other results remained unchanged. Listed below is each season’s highest ranked team (based on PPS) among this group along with their FBS record and regular season finishes in the Power Points Standings and AP poll respectively.
1978 UTEP (1-11) 137 NR
1979 Brigham Young (10-0) 1 9
1980 Brigham Young (11-1) 3 14
1981 Miami-Ohio (8-2-1) 16 NR
1982 Brigham Young (8-3) 15 NR
1983 None
1984 Brigham Young (12-0) 2 1
1985 Brigham Young (11-2) 9 9
1986 San Diego State (8-3) 14 NR
1987 Wyoming (10-2) 13 NR
1988 Wyoming (10-1) 5 15
1989 Brigham Young (10-2) 13 19
1990 Brigham Young (10-2) 8 13
1991 Brigham Young (8-3-1) 16 NR
1992 Hawaii (10-2) 9 NR
1993 Louisville (8-3) 17 25
1994 Fresno State (5-7-1) 60 NR
1995 Utah (7-4) 29 NR
1996 Brigham Young (13-1) 4 5
1997 San Diego State (5-7) 69 NR
1998 None
1999 None
2000 None
2001 Fresno State (11-2) 7 20
2002 Colorado State (10-3) 13 23
2003 Miami-Ohio (12-1) 5 14
2004 Louisiana Tech (6-6) 42 NR
2005 None
2006 None
2007 Brigham Young (9-2) 15 19
2008 Buffalo (8-5) 35 NR
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Wildcard Simulation
Suppose a 16-team playoff with auto bids becomes a reality. How would the wildcard berths be determined? By objective or subjective means? Listed below are the number of wildcard teams agreed on by the Power Points System and the Associated Press poll for each season since 1978. For the purposes of this post, only current FBS members were considered. Furthermore, the highest ranked member of each conference in the Power Points Standings based on current membership served as automatic qualifiers. This is done to eliminate 11 teams that would qualify no matter how the wildcard teams are determined. From here, the top five remaining teams in both systems are compared. For each season, the teams that the systems disagreed on are listed in parentheses with the teams favored by the Power Points System listed first. The systems agreed on 119 of 155 wildcards (over 31 seasons) which is five teams short of a four out of five average.
1978-5
1979-3 (South Carolina/Wake Forest or Purdue/Washington)
1980-4 (North Carolina or Michigan)
1981-3 (Arizona State/Southern Mississippi or North Carolina/Washington)
1982-3 (Southern California/Florida or West Virginia/Oklahoma)
1983-4 (Clemson or Florida)
1984-4 (Southern California or Maryland)
1985-4 (Alabama or Tennessee)
1986-2 (Washington/Alabama/Ohio State or Nebraska/Texas A&M/Auburn)
1987-4 (Notre Dame or South Carolina)
1988-5
1989-4 (Arkansas or Nebraska)
1990-4 (Southern California or Florida)
1991-4 (Nebraska or Iowa)
1992-4 (Ohio State or Georgia)
1993-4 (Miami-Florida or Wisconsin)
1994-5
1995-5
1996-3 (Washington/North Carolina or Tennessee/Northwestern)
1997-3 (Auburn/Georgia or UCLA/North Carolina)
1998-3 (Texas/Michigan or Florida/Arkansas)
1999-4 (Penn State or Wisconsin)
2000-4 (Kansas State or Nebraska)
2001-4 (Stanford or Maryland)
2002-2 (Notre Dame/Alabama/Michigan or Kansas State/Washington State/Penn State)
2003-4 (Georgia or Tennessee)
2004-4 (Arizona State or Georgia)
2005-4 (Louisiana State or Auburn)
2006-5
2007-4 (Boston College or Southern California)
2008-4 (Pittsburgh or Texas Christian)
AVG-3.8
1978-5
1979-3 (South Carolina/Wake Forest or Purdue/Washington)
1980-4 (North Carolina or Michigan)
1981-3 (Arizona State/Southern Mississippi or North Carolina/Washington)
1982-3 (Southern California/Florida or West Virginia/Oklahoma)
1983-4 (Clemson or Florida)
1984-4 (Southern California or Maryland)
1985-4 (Alabama or Tennessee)
1986-2 (Washington/Alabama/Ohio State or Nebraska/Texas A&M/Auburn)
1987-4 (Notre Dame or South Carolina)
1988-5
1989-4 (Arkansas or Nebraska)
1990-4 (Southern California or Florida)
1991-4 (Nebraska or Iowa)
1992-4 (Ohio State or Georgia)
1993-4 (Miami-Florida or Wisconsin)
1994-5
1995-5
1996-3 (Washington/North Carolina or Tennessee/Northwestern)
1997-3 (Auburn/Georgia or UCLA/North Carolina)
1998-3 (Texas/Michigan or Florida/Arkansas)
1999-4 (Penn State or Wisconsin)
2000-4 (Kansas State or Nebraska)
2001-4 (Stanford or Maryland)
2002-2 (Notre Dame/Alabama/Michigan or Kansas State/Washington State/Penn State)
2003-4 (Georgia or Tennessee)
2004-4 (Arizona State or Georgia)
2005-4 (Louisiana State or Auburn)
2006-5
2007-4 (Boston College or Southern California)
2008-4 (Pittsburgh or Texas Christian)
AVG-3.8
Monday, July 6, 2009
Mid-Majors (NonBCS) and the Top 16
Listed below are the number of regular season finishes in the top one, top two, top three, and so on for mid-major (nonBCS) teams since 1978 in the Power Points System and Associated Press Poll respectively.
1-1 and 1
2-2 and 1
3-3 and 1
4-7 and 1
5-12 and 3
6-14 and 3
7-18 and 5
8-20 and 5
9-23 and 10
10-27 and 15
11-28 and 17
12-35 and 18
13-42 and 20
14-49 and 25
15-55 and 27
16-64 and 29
1-1 and 1
2-2 and 1
3-3 and 1
4-7 and 1
5-12 and 3
6-14 and 3
7-18 and 5
8-20 and 5
9-23 and 10
10-27 and 15
11-28 and 17
12-35 and 18
13-42 and 20
14-49 and 25
15-55 and 27
16-64 and 29
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Power Points System's NCAA Tournament Field
Here is the 2009 NCAA Tournament Field if determined by the Power Points System. The field includes the 31 automatic qualifiers plus the top 34 remaining teams in the Power Points Standings. The number to the left is each team’s overall finish in the Power Points Standings. The numbers to the right are each team’s seed according to the Power Points System and the NCAA selection committee respectively (NS = no seed). The six teams selected by the NCAA that would not have qualified according to the Power Points System are listed below the field of 65. The average seed difference for the 59 teams that qualified under both formats is 1.26.
THE POWER POINTS SYSTEM FIELD OF 65
1 Memphis 1 2
2 Duke 1 2
3 Pittsburgh 1 1
4 Louisville 1 1
5 Connecticut 2 1
6 Oklahoma 2 2
7 North Carolina 2 1
8 Michigan State 2 2
9 Missouri 3 3
10 Villanova 3 3
11 Utah State 3 11
12 Kansas 3 3
13 Syracuse 4 3
14 Xavier 4 4
15 Siena 4 9
16 Washington 4 4
17 Florida State 5 5
18 Butler 5 9
19 Dayton 5 11
20 Purdue 5 5
21 LSU 6 8
22 Wake Forest 6 4
23 Utah 6 5
24 Gonzaga 6 4
25 Illinois 7 5
26 Creighton 7 NS
27 UCLA 7 6
28 BYU 7 8
29 Arizona State 8 6
30 Marquette 8 6
31 Clemson 8 7
32 West Virginia 8 6
33 Oklahoma State 9 8
34 Niagara 9 NS
35 Tennessee 9 9
36 Saint Mary's (CA) 9 NS
37 Ohio State 10 8
38 Davidson 10 NS
39 Virginia Commonwealth 10 11
40 Texas A&M 10 9
41 Temple 11 11
42 California 11 7
43 Illinois State 11 NS
44 San Diego State 11 NS
45 Western Kentucky 12 12
46 Texas 12 7
47 USC 12 10
52 Mississippi State 12 13
53 Northern Iowa 13 12
55 American 13 14
58 Cleveland State 13 13
61 North Dakota State 13 14
72 Binghamton 14 15
78 Robert Morris 14 15
82 Stephen F. Austin 14 14
89 Akron 14 13
94 East Tennessee State 15 16
98 Portland State 15 13
102 Morgan State 15 15
107 Cornell 15 14
127 Radford 16 16
133 Alabama State 16 16
142 Cal State Northridge 16 15
154 Morehead State 16 16
167 Chattanooga 16 16
TEAMS THAT DID NOT QUALIFY
48 Boston College NS 7
49 Minnesota NS 10
63 Maryland NS 10
64 Michigan NS 10
71 Wisconsin NS 12
76 Arizona NS 12
THE POWER POINTS SYSTEM FIELD OF 65
1 Memphis 1 2
2 Duke 1 2
3 Pittsburgh 1 1
4 Louisville 1 1
5 Connecticut 2 1
6 Oklahoma 2 2
7 North Carolina 2 1
8 Michigan State 2 2
9 Missouri 3 3
10 Villanova 3 3
11 Utah State 3 11
12 Kansas 3 3
13 Syracuse 4 3
14 Xavier 4 4
15 Siena 4 9
16 Washington 4 4
17 Florida State 5 5
18 Butler 5 9
19 Dayton 5 11
20 Purdue 5 5
21 LSU 6 8
22 Wake Forest 6 4
23 Utah 6 5
24 Gonzaga 6 4
25 Illinois 7 5
26 Creighton 7 NS
27 UCLA 7 6
28 BYU 7 8
29 Arizona State 8 6
30 Marquette 8 6
31 Clemson 8 7
32 West Virginia 8 6
33 Oklahoma State 9 8
34 Niagara 9 NS
35 Tennessee 9 9
36 Saint Mary's (CA) 9 NS
37 Ohio State 10 8
38 Davidson 10 NS
39 Virginia Commonwealth 10 11
40 Texas A&M 10 9
41 Temple 11 11
42 California 11 7
43 Illinois State 11 NS
44 San Diego State 11 NS
45 Western Kentucky 12 12
46 Texas 12 7
47 USC 12 10
52 Mississippi State 12 13
53 Northern Iowa 13 12
55 American 13 14
58 Cleveland State 13 13
61 North Dakota State 13 14
72 Binghamton 14 15
78 Robert Morris 14 15
82 Stephen F. Austin 14 14
89 Akron 14 13
94 East Tennessee State 15 16
98 Portland State 15 13
102 Morgan State 15 15
107 Cornell 15 14
127 Radford 16 16
133 Alabama State 16 16
142 Cal State Northridge 16 15
154 Morehead State 16 16
167 Chattanooga 16 16
TEAMS THAT DID NOT QUALIFY
48 Boston College NS 7
49 Minnesota NS 10
63 Maryland NS 10
64 Michigan NS 10
71 Wisconsin NS 12
76 Arizona NS 12
2008-2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Power Points Standings
1 Memphis 479
2 Duke 465
3 Pittsburgh 461
4 Louisville 458
5 Connecticut 428
6 Oklahoma 425
7 North Carolina 420
8 Michigan State 407
9 Missouri 386
10 Villanova 375
11 Utah State 366
12 Kansas 363
13 Syracuse 360
14 Xavier 340
15 Siena 337
16 Washington 330
17 Florida State 327
18 Butler 326
19 Dayton 325
20 Purdue 323
21 LSU 321
22 Wake Forest 319
23 Utah 319
24 Gonzaga 316
25 Illinois 311
26 Creighton 305
27 UCLA 294
28 BYU 292
29 Arizona State 286
30 Marquette 283
31 Clemson 283
32 West Virginia 281
33 Oklahoma State 280
34 Niagara 267
35 Tennessee 265
36 Saint Mary's (CA) 263
37 Ohio State 256
38 Davidson 252
39 Virginia Commonwealth 251
40 Texas A&M 251
41 Temple 246
42 California 244
43 Illinois State 241
44 San Diego State 238
45 Western Kentucky 234
46 Texas 231
47 USC 227
48 Boston College 222
49 Minnesota 221
50 Tulsa 217
51 Florida 214
52 Mississippi State 213
53 Northern Iowa 210
54 George Mason 202
55 American 201
56 South Carolina 201
57 UNLV 198
58 Cleveland State 195
59 UAB 194
60 Auburn 194
61 North Dakota State 192
62 Rhode Island 191
63 Maryland 189
64 Michigan 188
65 College Of Charleston 186
66 Penn State 186
67 Arkansas-Little Rock 182
68 Baylor 181
69 New Mexico 175
70 Vermont 174
71 Wisconsin 172
72 Binghamton 166
73 Duquesne 160
74 Kentucky 160
75 Wisconsin-Green Bay 159
76 Arizona 158
77 Kansas State 153
78 Robert Morris 152
79 Nevada 151
80 Providence 149
81 Buffalo 147
82 Stephen F. Austin 146
83 Miami 145
84 Houston 143
85 Nebraska 143
86 Old Dominion 142
87 Virginia Tech 137
88 Georgetown 135
89 Akron 134
90 UTEP 129
91 Hofstra 119
92 Weber State 117
93 Vanderbilt 117
94 East Tennessee State 115
95 Wright State 114
96 Northwestern 111
97 VMI 110
98 Portland State 105
99 Northeastern 105
100 Cincinnati 103
101 Ole Miss 100
102 Morgan State 97
103 Notre Dame 96
104 La Salle 90
105 Miami-Ohio 87
106 Rider 86
107 Cornell 85
108 Washington State 85
109 Stanford 84
110 Evansville 83
111 Boise State 82
112 North Texas 81
113 Tennessee-Martin 79
114 Wyoming 75
115 Mount Saint Mary's 73
116 Bradley 72
117 Alabama 72
118 Belmont 71
119 Fairfield 71
120 Oakland 66
121 Portland 66
122 Saint Joseph's 63
123 Seton Hall 61
124 Saint Louis 59
125 North Carolina State 59
126 South Alabama 58
127 Radford 56
128 Troy 55
129 Kent State 55
130 Navy 54
131 Pacific 54
132 New Mexico State 53
133 Alabama State 48
134 James Madison 47
135 Jacksonville 46
136 Liberty 42
137 The Citadel 39
138 Murray State 39
139 Richmond 37
140 Bowling Green 36
141 Boston University 34
142 Cal State Northridge 30
143 Holy Cross 29
144 Drake 29
145 Austin Peay 28
146 Nicholls State 25
147 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23
148 Iowa 23
149 Idaho 21
150 St. John's 20
151 Manhattan 17
152 Drexel 16
153 UCF 15
154 Morehead State 13
155 Middle Tennessee 13
156 Arkansas 12
157 Sam Houston State 9
158 Eastern Kentucky 8
159 Texas Tech 6
160 Wichita State 4
161 Long Beach State 3
162 Montana -1
163 Texas-San Antonio -3
164 UC Santa Barbara -5
165 Oral Roberts -8
166 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -9
167 Chattanooga -11
168 Illinois-Chicago -12
169 Virginia -12
170 Sacred Heart -13
171 Stony Brook -13
172 Utah Valley State -15
173 Wofford -16
174 Iowa State -19
175 Mercer -24
176 Albany -26
177 Jackson State -27
178 Ohio -29
179 Western Carolina -30
180 UMBC -30
181 Southern Miss -31
182 Louisiana Tech -33
183 UC Riverside -34
184 Georgia Tech -34
185 St. Bonaventure -40
186 TCU -40
187 Marshall -41
188 San Diego -43
189 Massachusetts -44
190 Chicago State -45
191 Southern Illinois -47
192 Texas-Arlington -48
193 Oregon State -51
194 Tulane -52
195 Lipscomb -53
196 Cal State Fullerton -54
197 Long Island -57
198 Denver -58
199 Wagner -59
200 New Hampshire -60
201 Lehigh -64
202 Santa Clara -64
203 Harvard -65
204 Lamar -65
205 Idaho State -67
206 Quinnipiac -72
207 South Carolina State -72
208 UNC Asheville -73
209 San Jose State -75
210 Georgia -76
211 Loyola-Chicago -79
212 IUPUI -81
213 Hampton -82
214 Hawaii -83
215 Samford -84
216 Yale -86
217 Savannah State -87
218 Montana State -88
219 Campbell -91
220 Presbyterian College -93
221 Central Connecticut -99
222 Eastern Washington -99
223 George Washington -99
224 Stetson -100
225 FIU -100
226 Loyola-Maryland -101
227 Bethune Cookman -102
228 Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne -103
229 Missouri State -104
230 Princeton -105
231 Rutgers -105
232 Ball State -107
233 Delaware -108
234 ECU -109
235 Charlotte -110
236 Texas State -112
237 Gardner Webb -115
238 Iona -116
239 Fresno State -117
240 Columbia -118
241 Arkansas State -119
242 Canisius -120
243 Longwood -121
244 UC Irvine -124
245 Prairie View A&M -128
246 Southeastern Louisiana -129
247 Appalachian State -130
248 Indiana State -130
249 Oregon -130
250 North Carolina A&T -133
251 Tennessee State -135
252 Coppin State -135
253 Pennsylvania -135
254 Southern Utah -136
255 South Florida -136
256 Colorado State -137
257 Tennessee Tech -139
258 Towson -139
259 Northern Colorado -141
260 Jacksonville State -141
261 Winthrop -142
262 Georgia State -144
263 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -145
264 UC Davis -146
265 St. Peter's -147
266 Youngstown State -147
267 Rice -149
268 New Orleans -150
269 Army -152
270 Eastern Illinois -153
271 Louisiana-Lafayette -153
272 William & Mary -153
273 Norfolk State -160
274 San Francisco -161
275 McNeese State -162
276 Colorado -165
277 Brown -166
278 DePaul -166
279 South Dakota State -170
280 Elon -175
281 SMU -175
282 Central Michigan -178
283 Air Force -180
284 Northern Arizona -181
285 Coastal Carolina -182
286 Marist -182
287 Colgate -183
288 ULM -183
289 St. Francis (NY) -185
290 Valparaiso -186
291 Florida Gulf Coast -190
292 South Carolina Upstate -198
293 Western Michigan -199
294 Central Arkansas -201
295 Dartmouth -203
296 Indiana -203
297 Cal Poly -206
298 Texas-Pan American -207
299 Florida A&M -211
300 Maine -212
301 Northwestern State -218
302 Georgia Southern -219
303 Alabama A&M -221
304 Pepperdine -222
305 Bucknell -229
306 UNC Wilmington -229
307 Charleston Southern -231
308 Cal State Bakersfield -232
309 Lafayette -237
310 Northern Illinois -238
311 Centenary -238
312 Bryant -240
313 Detroit -241
314 UMKC -250
315 Western Illinois -257
316 Delaware State -258
317 High Point -259
318 Monmouth -263
319 North Florida -265
320 Fairleigh Dickinson -272
321 Howard -273
322 Hartford -276
323 Southern -282
324 St. Francis (PA) -282
325 Fordham -288
326 Winston-Salem State -292
327 Florida Atlantic -295
328 Kennesaw State -297
329 Houston Baptist -300
330 Toledo -302
331 Furman -305
332 Eastern Michigan -309
333 UNC Greensboro -314
334 Mississippi Valley State -318
335 Texas Southern -319
336 Maryland Eastern Shore -323
337 Grambling -328
338 Loyola-Marymount -334
339 North Carolina Central -345
340 Southeast Missouri State -363
341 Alcorn State -377
342 Sacramento State -384
343 New Jersey Tech -503
2 Duke 465
3 Pittsburgh 461
4 Louisville 458
5 Connecticut 428
6 Oklahoma 425
7 North Carolina 420
8 Michigan State 407
9 Missouri 386
10 Villanova 375
11 Utah State 366
12 Kansas 363
13 Syracuse 360
14 Xavier 340
15 Siena 337
16 Washington 330
17 Florida State 327
18 Butler 326
19 Dayton 325
20 Purdue 323
21 LSU 321
22 Wake Forest 319
23 Utah 319
24 Gonzaga 316
25 Illinois 311
26 Creighton 305
27 UCLA 294
28 BYU 292
29 Arizona State 286
30 Marquette 283
31 Clemson 283
32 West Virginia 281
33 Oklahoma State 280
34 Niagara 267
35 Tennessee 265
36 Saint Mary's (CA) 263
37 Ohio State 256
38 Davidson 252
39 Virginia Commonwealth 251
40 Texas A&M 251
41 Temple 246
42 California 244
43 Illinois State 241
44 San Diego State 238
45 Western Kentucky 234
46 Texas 231
47 USC 227
48 Boston College 222
49 Minnesota 221
50 Tulsa 217
51 Florida 214
52 Mississippi State 213
53 Northern Iowa 210
54 George Mason 202
55 American 201
56 South Carolina 201
57 UNLV 198
58 Cleveland State 195
59 UAB 194
60 Auburn 194
61 North Dakota State 192
62 Rhode Island 191
63 Maryland 189
64 Michigan 188
65 College Of Charleston 186
66 Penn State 186
67 Arkansas-Little Rock 182
68 Baylor 181
69 New Mexico 175
70 Vermont 174
71 Wisconsin 172
72 Binghamton 166
73 Duquesne 160
74 Kentucky 160
75 Wisconsin-Green Bay 159
76 Arizona 158
77 Kansas State 153
78 Robert Morris 152
79 Nevada 151
80 Providence 149
81 Buffalo 147
82 Stephen F. Austin 146
83 Miami 145
84 Houston 143
85 Nebraska 143
86 Old Dominion 142
87 Virginia Tech 137
88 Georgetown 135
89 Akron 134
90 UTEP 129
91 Hofstra 119
92 Weber State 117
93 Vanderbilt 117
94 East Tennessee State 115
95 Wright State 114
96 Northwestern 111
97 VMI 110
98 Portland State 105
99 Northeastern 105
100 Cincinnati 103
101 Ole Miss 100
102 Morgan State 97
103 Notre Dame 96
104 La Salle 90
105 Miami-Ohio 87
106 Rider 86
107 Cornell 85
108 Washington State 85
109 Stanford 84
110 Evansville 83
111 Boise State 82
112 North Texas 81
113 Tennessee-Martin 79
114 Wyoming 75
115 Mount Saint Mary's 73
116 Bradley 72
117 Alabama 72
118 Belmont 71
119 Fairfield 71
120 Oakland 66
121 Portland 66
122 Saint Joseph's 63
123 Seton Hall 61
124 Saint Louis 59
125 North Carolina State 59
126 South Alabama 58
127 Radford 56
128 Troy 55
129 Kent State 55
130 Navy 54
131 Pacific 54
132 New Mexico State 53
133 Alabama State 48
134 James Madison 47
135 Jacksonville 46
136 Liberty 42
137 The Citadel 39
138 Murray State 39
139 Richmond 37
140 Bowling Green 36
141 Boston University 34
142 Cal State Northridge 30
143 Holy Cross 29
144 Drake 29
145 Austin Peay 28
146 Nicholls State 25
147 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23
148 Iowa 23
149 Idaho 21
150 St. John's 20
151 Manhattan 17
152 Drexel 16
153 UCF 15
154 Morehead State 13
155 Middle Tennessee 13
156 Arkansas 12
157 Sam Houston State 9
158 Eastern Kentucky 8
159 Texas Tech 6
160 Wichita State 4
161 Long Beach State 3
162 Montana -1
163 Texas-San Antonio -3
164 UC Santa Barbara -5
165 Oral Roberts -8
166 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -9
167 Chattanooga -11
168 Illinois-Chicago -12
169 Virginia -12
170 Sacred Heart -13
171 Stony Brook -13
172 Utah Valley State -15
173 Wofford -16
174 Iowa State -19
175 Mercer -24
176 Albany -26
177 Jackson State -27
178 Ohio -29
179 Western Carolina -30
180 UMBC -30
181 Southern Miss -31
182 Louisiana Tech -33
183 UC Riverside -34
184 Georgia Tech -34
185 St. Bonaventure -40
186 TCU -40
187 Marshall -41
188 San Diego -43
189 Massachusetts -44
190 Chicago State -45
191 Southern Illinois -47
192 Texas-Arlington -48
193 Oregon State -51
194 Tulane -52
195 Lipscomb -53
196 Cal State Fullerton -54
197 Long Island -57
198 Denver -58
199 Wagner -59
200 New Hampshire -60
201 Lehigh -64
202 Santa Clara -64
203 Harvard -65
204 Lamar -65
205 Idaho State -67
206 Quinnipiac -72
207 South Carolina State -72
208 UNC Asheville -73
209 San Jose State -75
210 Georgia -76
211 Loyola-Chicago -79
212 IUPUI -81
213 Hampton -82
214 Hawaii -83
215 Samford -84
216 Yale -86
217 Savannah State -87
218 Montana State -88
219 Campbell -91
220 Presbyterian College -93
221 Central Connecticut -99
222 Eastern Washington -99
223 George Washington -99
224 Stetson -100
225 FIU -100
226 Loyola-Maryland -101
227 Bethune Cookman -102
228 Indiana-Purdue Fort Wayne -103
229 Missouri State -104
230 Princeton -105
231 Rutgers -105
232 Ball State -107
233 Delaware -108
234 ECU -109
235 Charlotte -110
236 Texas State -112
237 Gardner Webb -115
238 Iona -116
239 Fresno State -117
240 Columbia -118
241 Arkansas State -119
242 Canisius -120
243 Longwood -121
244 UC Irvine -124
245 Prairie View A&M -128
246 Southeastern Louisiana -129
247 Appalachian State -130
248 Indiana State -130
249 Oregon -130
250 North Carolina A&T -133
251 Tennessee State -135
252 Coppin State -135
253 Pennsylvania -135
254 Southern Utah -136
255 South Florida -136
256 Colorado State -137
257 Tennessee Tech -139
258 Towson -139
259 Northern Colorado -141
260 Jacksonville State -141
261 Winthrop -142
262 Georgia State -144
263 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -145
264 UC Davis -146
265 St. Peter's -147
266 Youngstown State -147
267 Rice -149
268 New Orleans -150
269 Army -152
270 Eastern Illinois -153
271 Louisiana-Lafayette -153
272 William & Mary -153
273 Norfolk State -160
274 San Francisco -161
275 McNeese State -162
276 Colorado -165
277 Brown -166
278 DePaul -166
279 South Dakota State -170
280 Elon -175
281 SMU -175
282 Central Michigan -178
283 Air Force -180
284 Northern Arizona -181
285 Coastal Carolina -182
286 Marist -182
287 Colgate -183
288 ULM -183
289 St. Francis (NY) -185
290 Valparaiso -186
291 Florida Gulf Coast -190
292 South Carolina Upstate -198
293 Western Michigan -199
294 Central Arkansas -201
295 Dartmouth -203
296 Indiana -203
297 Cal Poly -206
298 Texas-Pan American -207
299 Florida A&M -211
300 Maine -212
301 Northwestern State -218
302 Georgia Southern -219
303 Alabama A&M -221
304 Pepperdine -222
305 Bucknell -229
306 UNC Wilmington -229
307 Charleston Southern -231
308 Cal State Bakersfield -232
309 Lafayette -237
310 Northern Illinois -238
311 Centenary -238
312 Bryant -240
313 Detroit -241
314 UMKC -250
315 Western Illinois -257
316 Delaware State -258
317 High Point -259
318 Monmouth -263
319 North Florida -265
320 Fairleigh Dickinson -272
321 Howard -273
322 Hartford -276
323 Southern -282
324 St. Francis (PA) -282
325 Fordham -288
326 Winston-Salem State -292
327 Florida Atlantic -295
328 Kennesaw State -297
329 Houston Baptist -300
330 Toledo -302
331 Furman -305
332 Eastern Michigan -309
333 UNC Greensboro -314
334 Mississippi Valley State -318
335 Texas Southern -319
336 Maryland Eastern Shore -323
337 Grambling -328
338 Loyola-Marymount -334
339 North Carolina Central -345
340 Southeast Missouri State -363
341 Alcorn State -377
342 Sacramento State -384
343 New Jersey Tech -503
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Fewest Teams From Top Two Match
Listed below are the scenarios for each season involving the fewest number of teams removed from the AP Poll matching the Power Points Standings’ top two (AP=PP) and/or the latter matching the former (PP=AP).
1978-1...eliminate Alabama (AP=PP) or Southern California (PP=AP)
1979-4...eliminate Brigham Young, Florida State. Arkansas, and Southern California (PP=AP)
1980-1...eliminate Georgia (AP=PP)
1981-4...eliminate Pittsburgh, Penn State, Miami-Florida, and Texas (PP=AP)
1982-0...match
1983-1...eliminate Texas (AP=PP) or Auburn (PP=AP)
1984-1...eliminate Oklahoma (PP=AP)
1985-1...eliminate Miami-Florida (PP=AP)
1986-1...eliminate Michigan (PP=AP)
1987-1...eliminate Oklahoma (AP=PP)
1988-1...eliminate Southern California (PP=AP)
1989-2...eliminate Miami-Florida and Michigan (AP=PP)
1990-1...eliminate Georgia Tech (AP=PP)
1991-0...match
1992-0...match
1993-0...match
1994-0...match
1995-0...match
1996-0...match
1997-1...eliminate Nebraska (AP=PP) or Tennessee (PP=AP)
1998-0...match
1999-2...eliminate Alabama and Nebraska (PP=AP)
2000-1...eliminate Miami-Florida (AP=PP) or Florida State (PP=AP)
2001-2...eliminate Oregon and Colorado (AP=PP)
2002-0...match
2003-1...eliminate Southern California (AP=PP) or Oklahoma (PP=AP)
2004-0...match
2005-0...match
2006-1...eliminate Ohio State (AP=PP) or Michigan (PP=AP)
2007-3...eliminate Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Georgia (AP=PP) or Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri (PP=AP)
2008-1...eliminate Florida (AP=PP) or Texas (PP=AP)
1978-1...eliminate Alabama (AP=PP) or Southern California (PP=AP)
1979-4...eliminate Brigham Young, Florida State. Arkansas, and Southern California (PP=AP)
1980-1...eliminate Georgia (AP=PP)
1981-4...eliminate Pittsburgh, Penn State, Miami-Florida, and Texas (PP=AP)
1982-0...match
1983-1...eliminate Texas (AP=PP) or Auburn (PP=AP)
1984-1...eliminate Oklahoma (PP=AP)
1985-1...eliminate Miami-Florida (PP=AP)
1986-1...eliminate Michigan (PP=AP)
1987-1...eliminate Oklahoma (AP=PP)
1988-1...eliminate Southern California (PP=AP)
1989-2...eliminate Miami-Florida and Michigan (AP=PP)
1990-1...eliminate Georgia Tech (AP=PP)
1991-0...match
1992-0...match
1993-0...match
1994-0...match
1995-0...match
1996-0...match
1997-1...eliminate Nebraska (AP=PP) or Tennessee (PP=AP)
1998-0...match
1999-2...eliminate Alabama and Nebraska (PP=AP)
2000-1...eliminate Miami-Florida (AP=PP) or Florida State (PP=AP)
2001-2...eliminate Oregon and Colorado (AP=PP)
2002-0...match
2003-1...eliminate Southern California (AP=PP) or Oklahoma (PP=AP)
2004-0...match
2005-0...match
2006-1...eliminate Ohio State (AP=PP) or Michigan (PP=AP)
2007-3...eliminate Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Georgia (AP=PP) or Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, and Missouri (PP=AP)
2008-1...eliminate Florida (AP=PP) or Texas (PP=AP)
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Top 16 Matches
Listed below are the number of top 16 matches between the AP Poll and the Power Points System for each year since 1978 followed by the number of teams (out of 31) with each respective ranking that finished in the opposing system's top 16. The AP's numbers are listed first.
1978-13
1979-12
1980-14
1981-13
1982-13
1983-15
1984-11
1985-15
1986-13
1987-13
1988-14
1989-15
1990-14
1991-13
1992-13
1993-15
1994-13
1995-14
1996-15
1997-13
1998-14
1999-14
2000-14
2001-13
2002-14
2003-13
2004-15
2005-15
2006-15
2007-14
2008-13
1--31 31
2--31 31
3--31 31
4--31 31
5--31 31
6--30 29
7--30 29
8--30 30
9--30 29
10-30 28
11-28 28
12-21 23
13-24 22
14-20 21
15-14 18
16-13 13
1978-13
1979-12
1980-14
1981-13
1982-13
1983-15
1984-11
1985-15
1986-13
1987-13
1988-14
1989-15
1990-14
1991-13
1992-13
1993-15
1994-13
1995-14
1996-15
1997-13
1998-14
1999-14
2000-14
2001-13
2002-14
2003-13
2004-15
2005-15
2006-15
2007-14
2008-13
1--31 31
2--31 31
3--31 31
4--31 31
5--31 31
6--30 29
7--30 29
8--30 30
9--30 29
10-30 28
11-28 28
12-21 23
13-24 22
14-20 21
15-14 18
16-13 13
Friday, February 6, 2009
Arizona Cardinals and the BCS
It comes as no surprise to me that playoff opponents have adopted the Arizona Cardinals as the poster child for their stand against college football instituting an expanded playoff system. Their argument is that allowing the college football equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals to qualify for the playoffs and “just get hot” over a four week stretch would severely undermine the importance of the regular season. I believe this argument is disingenuous due to the odds against this ever occurring. Let me be clear that my preference for a 16-team playoff is not about any desire to see the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals succeed in winning the national title. I’m simply not bothered by the possibility given the probable path any such team would face in doing so.
That said, among the problems with using the Arizona Cardinals in their fight against a college playoff is that playoff opponents project the NFL format on to college football. However, the NFL format makes it easier for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl than it needs to. For example, if the NFL playoffs included the top 12 teams straight up, the Arizona Cardinals could have only been the 12th overall seed if they made the playoffs at all. Assuming the NFL still used a flexible bracket, Arizona’s path to the Super Bowl would have included games at the five seed, one seed, and two seed in that order assuming no upsets but their own. The Cardinals would have had no chance of hosting a playoff game much less the two home games afforded to them under the NFL format. While NFL may not be inclined to change its format for its own reasons, the point is that a format exists that would make things much more difficult for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl. As it is, the Arizona Cardinals are only one of two 9-7 teams to reach the Super Bowl. The other is the 1979 Los Angeles Rams. Given that only two 9-7 teams have ever reached the Super Bowl with neither winning, I doubt any NFL team (except, perhaps, the Detroit Lions) would take a 9-7 record if offered to them before the start of the season.
As for college football, the 9-4 ACC Champion Virginia Tech Hokies have been offered as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals. If I applied my desired playoff format to this past season while including the official conference champions, Virginia Tech would have been a 13 seed. As such, the Hokies’ probable path to the national title would have included games at Utah, at Oklahoma, at Texas, and versus Florida on a neutral site. Since I-A was established in 1978, only nine teams (based on power points standings) have even beaten two top four teams in the same season. Under my proposed format, Virginia Tech would have to beat the top four teams consecutively including three on the road assuming no upsets but their own. If we accept Virginia Tech as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals, we might only expect two such teams to even reach the title game every 43 years. Of course, that does not account for the fact that the Hokies will not benefit from two home games like the Arizona Cardinals did nor the fact that college football’s parity is unlikely to ever mirror the NFL’s. As such, there is no reason to believe that any college football team that expects to compete for the national title would ever settle for a 13 seed based on the ridiculous implication offered by playoff opponents that “just getting hot” against the top four teams is such a simple task that college football should deny that possibility even at the expense of several teams with equal or fewer losses than the two teams voted into a championship game.
That said, among the problems with using the Arizona Cardinals in their fight against a college playoff is that playoff opponents project the NFL format on to college football. However, the NFL format makes it easier for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl than it needs to. For example, if the NFL playoffs included the top 12 teams straight up, the Arizona Cardinals could have only been the 12th overall seed if they made the playoffs at all. Assuming the NFL still used a flexible bracket, Arizona’s path to the Super Bowl would have included games at the five seed, one seed, and two seed in that order assuming no upsets but their own. The Cardinals would have had no chance of hosting a playoff game much less the two home games afforded to them under the NFL format. While NFL may not be inclined to change its format for its own reasons, the point is that a format exists that would make things much more difficult for a 9-7 team to make the playoffs and reach the Super Bowl. As it is, the Arizona Cardinals are only one of two 9-7 teams to reach the Super Bowl. The other is the 1979 Los Angeles Rams. Given that only two 9-7 teams have ever reached the Super Bowl with neither winning, I doubt any NFL team (except, perhaps, the Detroit Lions) would take a 9-7 record if offered to them before the start of the season.
As for college football, the 9-4 ACC Champion Virginia Tech Hokies have been offered as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals. If I applied my desired playoff format to this past season while including the official conference champions, Virginia Tech would have been a 13 seed. As such, the Hokies’ probable path to the national title would have included games at Utah, at Oklahoma, at Texas, and versus Florida on a neutral site. Since I-A was established in 1978, only nine teams (based on power points standings) have even beaten two top four teams in the same season. Under my proposed format, Virginia Tech would have to beat the top four teams consecutively including three on the road assuming no upsets but their own. If we accept Virginia Tech as the college equivalent of the Arizona Cardinals, we might only expect two such teams to even reach the title game every 43 years. Of course, that does not account for the fact that the Hokies will not benefit from two home games like the Arizona Cardinals did nor the fact that college football’s parity is unlikely to ever mirror the NFL’s. As such, there is no reason to believe that any college football team that expects to compete for the national title would ever settle for a 13 seed based on the ridiculous implication offered by playoff opponents that “just getting hot” against the top four teams is such a simple task that college football should deny that possibility even at the expense of several teams with equal or fewer losses than the two teams voted into a championship game.
2008 FCS Season
I followed the FCS season this year in order to see how the Power Points System compares to the NCAA selection committee. Since FCS teams do not play equal game schedules versus FCS competition only, I modified the rules to account for interdivisional play. This only amounted to assigning substitute values for higher and lower classification opponents respectively based on their combined efforts. For example, FBS teams posted an 85-2 record versus FCS teams. Projected over 12 games, all FBS opponents are treated as a 12-0 FCS team. Lower division opponents finished 15-87 versus FCS competition and each is treated as equal to a 2-10 FCS team. No modifications were made to account for unequal game schedules.
Although my desired playoff format determines automatic qualifiers in a different manner than the actual conferences, this comparison includes the actual automatic qualifiers (eight) plus the top remaining teams (eight). Listed below is the 2008 FCS playoff field if determined by the Power Points System. Teams are listed highest to lowest national standing followed by their order amongst each other in the media poll.
1-James Madison 1
2-Appalachian State 2
3-South Carolina State 12
4-Montana 5
5-Villanova 6
6-Cal Poly 3
7-Wofford 8
8-Richmond 7
9-Northern Iowa 4
10-New Hampshire 10
11-Southern Illinois 9
12-Eastern Kentucky 15
13-Weber State 11
14-Liberty 13
15-Colgate 14
16-Texas State 16
The NCAA committee selected Maine over Liberty making this the only disagreement over qualifiers between the two methods. That said, based on my desired playoff format, Montana and Northern Iowa would have replaced Weber State and Southern Illinois respectively as their conference’s automatic qualifiers. Furthermore, for those playoff opponents that insist a large playoff will allow teams to rest their starters in the final weekend, only four teams had clinched playoff berths under my proposed format entering the final weekend and three of these teams had two to three home playoff games at stake. James Madison had the least to lose in the final weekend. The worst fate for the Dukes would have been a three seed if they had lost their final game and Cal Poly beat Wisconsin thereby costing them a guaranteed home game in the semifinal round.
Although my desired playoff format determines automatic qualifiers in a different manner than the actual conferences, this comparison includes the actual automatic qualifiers (eight) plus the top remaining teams (eight). Listed below is the 2008 FCS playoff field if determined by the Power Points System. Teams are listed highest to lowest national standing followed by their order amongst each other in the media poll.
1-James Madison 1
2-Appalachian State 2
3-South Carolina State 12
4-Montana 5
5-Villanova 6
6-Cal Poly 3
7-Wofford 8
8-Richmond 7
9-Northern Iowa 4
10-New Hampshire 10
11-Southern Illinois 9
12-Eastern Kentucky 15
13-Weber State 11
14-Liberty 13
15-Colgate 14
16-Texas State 16
The NCAA committee selected Maine over Liberty making this the only disagreement over qualifiers between the two methods. That said, based on my desired playoff format, Montana and Northern Iowa would have replaced Weber State and Southern Illinois respectively as their conference’s automatic qualifiers. Furthermore, for those playoff opponents that insist a large playoff will allow teams to rest their starters in the final weekend, only four teams had clinched playoff berths under my proposed format entering the final weekend and three of these teams had two to three home playoff games at stake. James Madison had the least to lose in the final weekend. The worst fate for the Dukes would have been a three seed if they had lost their final game and Cal Poly beat Wisconsin thereby costing them a guaranteed home game in the semifinal round.
Proposed Playoff Format
Below is my desired regular season and playoff format for college football including my proposed objective ranking system.
1-All FBS teams play 12 regular season games versus FBS competition only including six home games and six away games. No conference championship games, exempted games, or FCS games.
2-FBS teams are ranked most to least:
a. Power Points (Games Won Opponents’ Wins - Games Lost Opponents’ Losses)
b. Net Wins ( Wins - Losses)
c. Schedule Strength (Opponents’ Power Points)
d. Net Points (Points For - Points Against)
3-16 teams qualify for the playoffs (11 conference champions plus five wildcards).
4-Each conference’s automatic berth is awarded to the team with the best conference record. If there is a tie, the highest ranked team in the national standings per the rules described above is awarded the automatic berth.
5-The top five teams in the national standings that do not win their conference’s automatic berth are awarded the five wildcard berths.
6-The 16 playoff qualifiers are seeded highest to lowest national standing.
7-First round pairings are 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9. Subsequent round pairings match the highest and lowest advancing seeds, second highest and second lowest, and so on.
8-Higher seeded teams host all playoff games through the first three rounds. The national title game is held at a neutral site.
1-All FBS teams play 12 regular season games versus FBS competition only including six home games and six away games. No conference championship games, exempted games, or FCS games.
2-FBS teams are ranked most to least:
a. Power Points (Games Won Opponents’ Wins - Games Lost Opponents’ Losses)
b. Net Wins ( Wins - Losses)
c. Schedule Strength (Opponents’ Power Points)
d. Net Points (Points For - Points Against)
3-16 teams qualify for the playoffs (11 conference champions plus five wildcards).
4-Each conference’s automatic berth is awarded to the team with the best conference record. If there is a tie, the highest ranked team in the national standings per the rules described above is awarded the automatic berth.
5-The top five teams in the national standings that do not win their conference’s automatic berth are awarded the five wildcard berths.
6-The 16 playoff qualifiers are seeded highest to lowest national standing.
7-First round pairings are 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, 5-12, 6-11, 7-10, and 8-9. Subsequent round pairings match the highest and lowest advancing seeds, second highest and second lowest, and so on.
8-Higher seeded teams host all playoff games through the first three rounds. The national title game is held at a neutral site.
2008 Power Points Standings
REGULAR SEASON FINALE
1-Oklahoma 68
2-Texas 67
3-Florida 66
4-Utah 58
5-Boise State 57
6-Alabama 53
7-Southern California 53
8-Texas Tech 49
9-Penn State 47
10-Ohio State 47
11-Cincinnati 43
12-Pittsburgh 40
13-Texas Christian 39
14-Ball State 38
15-Georgia 38
16-Michigan State 36
17-Brigham Young 31
18-Oklahoma State 31
19-Oregon 30
20-Oregon State 30
21-Missouri 28
22-Boston College 28
23-Virginia Tech 26
24-Georgia Tech 24
25-Nebraska 23
POSTSEASON FINALE
1-Florida 82
2-Texas 79
3-Utah 73
4-Oklahoma 71
5-Southern California 67
6-Boise State 58
7-Alabama 57
8-Texas Christian 50
9-Georgia 48
10-Penn State 47
11-Texas Tech 47
12-Ohio State 45
13-Cincinnati 41
14-Oregon State 41
15-Pittsburgh 40
16-Oregon 39
17-Missouri 35
18-Virginia Tech 35
19-Ball State 34
20-Michigan State 34
21-Rice 31
22-California 30
23-Mississippi 28
24-Oklahoma State 28
25-Brigham Young 27
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Power Points System
Teams place most to least:
1-Power Points (Games Won Opponents' Wins - Games Lost Opponents' Losses)
2-Net Games (Wins - Losses)
3-Schedule Strength (Opponents' Power Points)
4-Net Points (Points For - Points Against)
Ideally, if this system is used, all FBS teams will play equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and the final regular season standings will be used to determine playoff qualifiers, seeds, and pairings.
1-Power Points (Games Won Opponents' Wins - Games Lost Opponents' Losses)
2-Net Games (Wins - Losses)
3-Schedule Strength (Opponents' Power Points)
4-Net Points (Points For - Points Against)
Ideally, if this system is used, all FBS teams will play equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and the final regular season standings will be used to determine playoff qualifiers, seeds, and pairings.
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