Power Points College Baseball Tournament Field

Listed below is the 64-team field for the NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament based on an approximation of the Power Points System using winning percentages found at warrennolan.com. The number to the left of each team's name is its overall rank in the approximation. The numbers to the right of each team's name is its seed according to the approximation and NCAA respectively. The two methods agreed on 58 of 64 teams overall, 14 of 16 top one seeds, and 26 of 32 top two seeds.

1 North Carolina 1 1
2 Vanderbilt 1 1
3 LSU 1 1
4 Virginia 1 1
5 Cal State Fullerton 1 1
6 Oregon State 1 1
7 North Carolina State 1 1
8 Oregon 1 1
9 Louisville 1 1
10 Florida State 1 1
11 Mississippi State 1 1
12 Indiana 1 1
13 Campbell 1 OUT
14 Austin Peay 1 2
15 South Carolina 1 1
16 Kansas State 1 1
17 UCLA 2 1
18 South Alabama 2 2
19 Virginia Tech 2 1
20 Clemson 2 2
21 Louisiana-Lafayette 2 2
22 Mercer 2 3
23 Bryant 2 3
24 Rice 2 2
25 Cal Poly 2 2
26 Ole Miss 2 3
27 Miami 2 2
28 Troy 2 3
29 Florida Atlantic 2 2
30 Oklahoma State 2 3
31 Arizona State 2 2
32 Arkansas 2 2
33 Oklahoma 3 2
34 UNC Wilmington 3 2
35 Pittsburgh 3 OUT
36 Dartmouth 3 OUT
37 Sam Houston State 3 3
38 North Florida 3 OUT
39 Seton Hall 3 OUT
40 Coastal Carolina 3 3
41 Georgia Tech 3 2
42 New Mexico 3 3
43 Saint Louis 3 4
44 Lamar 3 OUT
45 Canisius 3 4
46 Illinois 3 3
47 San Diego 3 3
54 Central Arkansas 3 4
69 East Tennessee State 4 4
81 Liberty 4 3
82 Wichita State 4 4
84 Texas-San Antonio 4 4
95 Elon 4 3
99 Connecticut 4 4
101 Columbia 4 4
110 San Diego State 4 4
124 Savannah State 4 4
127 Towson 4 3
135 South Dakota State 4 4
144 Binghamton 4 4
160 Army 4 4
170 Jackson State 4 4
173 Valparaiso 4 4
202 Bowling Green 4 4
51 William & Mary OUT 2
55 Alabama OUT 2
63 Texas A&M OUT 2
72 San Francisco OUT 3
73 UC Santa Barbara OUT 3
77 Florida OUT 3

Power Points System Final Four

Here are the top four teams in the Power Points Standings through regular season competition. These results are based on FBS games only without the benefit of equal maximum game regular season schedules and teams knowingly competing based on the relevant rules. 106 of 140 teams listed here placed in the AP, Coaches, and/or BCS top four.

1978 -Southern California -Penn State -Alabama -Notre Dame
1979 -Brigham Young -Florida State -Arkansas -Ohio State
1980 -Florida State -Pittsburgh -Brigham Young -Notre Dame
1981 -Clemson -Pittsburgh -Penn State -Miami-Florida
1982 -Georgia -Penn State -Nebraska -UCLA
1983 -Auburn -Nebraska -Texas -Brigham Young
1984 -Florida -Brigham Young -Washington -Oklahoma
1985 -Penn State -Oklahoma -Florida -Michigan
1986 -Penn State -Michigan -Miami-Florida -Louisiana State
1987 -Miami-Florida -Florida State -Nebraska -Syracuse
1988 -Notre Dame -Southern California -Miami-Florida -Nebraska
1989 -Notre Dame -Colorado -Tennessee -Michigan
1990 -Colorado -Texas -Miami-Florida -Georgia Tech
1991 -Miami-Florida -Washington -Florida -Michigan
1992 -Alabama -Miami-Florida -Texas A&M -Florida State
1993 -Florida State -Nebraska -Florida -West Virginia
1994 -Nebraska -Penn State -Florida -Alabama
1995 -Florida -Nebraska -Northwestern -Ohio State
1996 -Florida State -Arizona State -Florida -Brigham Young
1997 -Tennessee -Michigan -Nebraska -Florida State
1998 -Florida State -Tennessee -Texas A&M -UCLA
1999 -Florida State -Alabama -Nebraska -Virginia Tech
2000 -Oklahoma -Florida State -Miami-Florida -Florida
2001 -Miami-Florida -Nebraska -Tennessee -Colorado
2002 -Ohio State -Miami-Florida -Georgia -Southern California
2003 -Oklahoma -Louisiana State -Southern California -Ohio State
2004 -Oklahoma -Southern California -Auburn -Texas
2005 -Southern California -Texas -Penn State -Ohio State
2006 -Florida -Michigan -Ohio State -Boise State
2007 -Louisiana State -Virginia Tech -Oklahoma -Missouri
2008 -Oklahoma -Texas -Florida -Utah
2009 -Alabama -Texas -Florida -Boise State
2010 -Auburn -Oklahoma -Texas Christian -Boise State
2011 -Louisiana State -Oklahoma State -Boise State -Stanford
2012 -Notre Dame -Ohio State -Stanford -Florida

Official/Prorated Power Points Standings Top 4 Teams

Listed below for each season is all the teams that finished the regular season in the top four of the Official and Prorated Power Points Standings. The official standings are the actual results and the prorated standings are the actual results prorated to simulate equal game schedules. The teams are listed with their best regular season finish in the AP, Coaches, or BCS rankings. 118 of the 160 teams listed finished in the top four of at least one major ranking. 140 finished in the top six. Of the 20 teams ranked 7th or worse, ten occurred from 1978-1981.


1978 Penn State 1
1978 Alabama 2
1978 Southern California 3
1978 Notre Dame 9
1978 Tennessee State NR

1979 Ohio State 1
1979 Florida State 4
1979 Arkansas 6
1979 Brigham Young 9
1979 McNeese State NR

1980 Florida State 2
1980 Pittsburgh 3
1980 Notre Dame 7
1980 North Carolina 11
1980 Brigham Young 14
1980 Tennessee State NR

1981 Clemson 1
1981 Penn State 6
1981 Pittsburgh 8
1981 Miami-Florida 9

1982 Georgia 1
1982 Penn State 2
1982 Nebraska 3
1982 UCLA 5

1983 Nebraska 1
1983 Texas 2
1983 Auburn 3
1983 Brigham Young 9

1984 Brigham Young 1
1984 Oklahoma 2
1984 Florida 3
1984 Washington 3
1984 Boston College 8

1985 Penn State 1
1985 Oklahoma 2
1985 Iowa 3
1985 Michigan 5
1985 Florida 6

1986 Miami-Florida 1
1986 Penn State 2
1986 Oklahoma 3
1986 Michigan 4
1986 Louisiana State 5

1987 Oklahoma 1
1987 Miami-Florida 2
1987 Florida State 3
1987 Syracuse 4
1987 Nebraska 5

1988 Notre Dame 1
1988 Miami-Florida 2
1988 Florida State 4
1988 Southern California 5
1988 Nebraska 6

1989 Colorado 1
1989 Michigan 3
1989 Notre Dame 4
1989 Tennessee 8

1990 Colorado 1
1990 Georgia Tech 2
1990 Texas 3
1990 Miami-Florida 4

1991 Miami-Florida 1
1991 Washington 1
1991 Florida 3
1991 Michigan 3

1992 Miami-Florida 1
1992 Alabama 2
1992 Florida State 3
1992 Texas A&M 3

1993 Florida State 1
1993 Nebraska 1
1993 West Virginia 2
1993 Auburn 5
1993 Florida 8

1994 Nebraska 1
1994 Penn State 2
1994 Miami-Florida 3
1994 Florida 4
1994 Alabama 6

1995 Nebraska 1
1995 Florida 2
1995 Northwestern 3
1995 Ohio State 4
1995 Toledo 25

1996 Florida State 1
1996 Arizona State 2
1996 Florida 3
1996 Ohio State 4
1996 Brigham Young 5

1997 Michigan 1
1997 Nebraska 2
1997 Tennessee 3
1997 Florida State 4

1998 Tennessee 1
1998 Florida State 2
1998 UCLA 5
1998 Texas A&M 6

1999 Florida State 1
1999 Virginia Tech 2
1999 Nebraska 3
1999 Alabama 4

2000 Oklahoma 1
2000 Florida State 2
2000 Miami-Florida 2
2000 Washington 4
2000 Florida 7

2001 Miami-Florida 1
2001 Nebraska 2
2001 Colorado 3
2001 Tennessee 6

2002 Miami-Florida 1
2002 Ohio State 2
2002 Georgia 3
2002 Southern California 4

2003 Oklahoma 1
2003 Southern California 1
2003 Louisiana State 2
2003 Ohio State 5

2004 Southern California 1
2004 Oklahoma 2
2004 Auburn 3
2004 Texas 4

2005 Southern California 1
2005 Texas 2
2005 Penn State 3
2005 Ohio State 4

2006 Ohio State 1
2006 Florida 2
2006 Michigan 3
2006 Boise State 8

2007 Ohio State 1
2007 Louisiana State 2
2007 Oklahoma 3
2007 Virginia Tech 3
2007 Missouri 6

2008 Florida 1
2008 Oklahoma 1
2008 Texas 3
2008 Utah 6

2009 Alabama 1
2009 Texas 2
2009 Cincinnati 3
2009 Florida 5
2009 Boise State 6

2010 Auburn 1
2010 Oregon 1
2010 Texas Christian 3
2010 Michigan State 7
2010 Oklahoma 7
2010 Boise State 10

2011 Louisiana State 1
2011 Alabama 2
2011 Oklahoma State 3
2011 Stanford 4
2011 Boise State 6

2012 Notre Dame 1
2012 Florida 3
2012 Ohio State 3
2012 Oregon 3
2012 Stanford 6

Prorated Power Points Standings vs. AP Poll

Once again, ideal circumstances call for all teams to play an equal number of regular season games (or equal maximum). To simulate an equal number of regular season games, I have prorated the actual results based on FBS games for 11 or 12 games for all teams in a given year depending on which number was the maximum allowed excluding exempted games. To be clear, prorating the results is not a viable way to use the Power Points System if actually used as this will unfairly reward/punish teams for playing fewer/more games respectively. I use it here for demonstrative purposes only to approximate what results we might we get if all FBS teams played equal game schedules versus FBS competition only. That said, after discounting non-bowl teams, I compared the Prorated Standings and the AP Poll to determine their top four matches. Listed below are the 33 AP favored teams that did not finish in PPS top four during the past 35 seasons. These teams are listed with with their AP rank among bowl teams to the left and with lowest rank in Coaches Poll or BCS listed in parentheses. 19 of the 33 teams ranked fourth in AP. 25 of 33 ranked fourth or worse in the AP, CP. or BCS. Since 1982, the Prorated Standings and the AP agreed on 100 of 124 top four teams in 31 seasons with 22 of the 24 AP favored teams ranked fourth or worse by AP, CP, or BCS.

1978 #4 Oklahoma
1979 #1 Ohio State (#3 in CP)
1979 #2 Alabama
1979 #3 Southern Cal
1980 #1 Georgia
1980 #4 Oklahoma
1981 #2 Georgia
1981 #3 Alabama
1981 #4 Nebraska
1982 #4 SMU
1983 #4 Illinois (#5 in CP)
1984 #4 Nebraska
1985 #2 Miami (#4 in CP)
1986 #4 Michigan
1988 #3 West Virginia
1989 #2 Miami
1993 #4 Notre Dame
1994 #4 Colorado (#5 in CP)
1995 #4 Tennessee
1998 #3 Ohio State (#4 in BCS)
1998 #4 Kansas State
1999 #4 Wisconsin (#7 in BCS)
2001 #2 Oregon (#4 in BCS)
2002 #3 Iowa (#5 in BCS)
2003 #4 Michigan
2004 #4 California (#5 in BCS)
2006 #4 LSU
2007 #3 Oklahoma (#4 in BCS)
2007 #4 Georgia (#5 in BCS)
2008 #4 Alabama
2009 #3 TCU (#4 in BCS)
2010 #4 Wisconsin (#5 in BCS)
2011 #4 Stanford

College Football's $500 Million Question: Who's Going To Pick The Teams?

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/04/college_footballs_500_million.html

As mentioned in previous posts, the best possible circumstances for the Power Points System would involve all FBS teams playing equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only while knowingly competing based on the rules in play. That said, comparing the Power Points System in various ways to the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, and BCS Standings has yielded a three for four average on top four matches with most disputed teams on either side being the fourth team and 100% agreement being only one or two changed game outcomes away. And those are the results based on FBS games only but without the benefit of equal maximum game schedules and teams knowingly competing based on the rules in play. Imagine if the best possible circumstances existed and teams know what beats what before competition begins.

Unfortunately, all we can do is imagine because BCS officials are married to the idea that a selection committee is the best way to determine teams for the upcoming four-team playoff. To be clear, the problem with selection committees and polls is not that their outcomes are wrong as there are no right and wrong results contrary to those who ever said the BCS got it right. The problem is that those methods produce arbitrary results based on forever changing reasons why one team is in or out from one year to the next. Teams do not know what beats what even after the selection committee announces its playoff field because there are no guarantees that the popular argument one year will be the same the next. During the BCS era, contradictions occurred in the same year. How many people to this day argue that Miami, not Florida State, should have played Oklahoma for the 2000 title based on head-to-head yet ignore that Washington owned the same argument versus Miami? Subjective methods are the reason why the controversy does not end with an expanded playoff because subjective methods allow everyone to adopt any argument to justify their desired conclusion.

I do not know if BCS officials who insist voting teams in is the only way are that ignorant or because they know voting allows them to manufacture a desired outcome. However, their own words having me leaning towards ignorance. BCS executive director Bill Hancock has said that there are not enough data points to only use math/statistics to determine playoff teams. Really? What is enough data points? The Power Points System only needs a team's wins and losses and its opponents' wins and losses to separate any pair of teams better than 99% of the time. It is that simple. Again, 75% top four agreement, most disputes involve the fourth team, and 100% agreement is 1-2 flipped game results away. How many more data points does the Power Points System need to bridge the gap between those results and the arbitrary results produced by subjective methods? In the article linked above, the same Bill Hancock expects that the committee will consider common sense things like injuries and weather. "Just common-sense things that any sports fan would use." Common sense things? Where else in sports do the rules used to determine the standings place value on such nonsense? Is the committee going to put one team in over another because it won a game in the snow in late November or excuse a loss due to an injury to important player? That is common sense? If so, why don't conferences consider such factors regarding their own standings even if only as a tiebreakers? Obviously, it is because doing lacks common sense. Only in sports that use beauty contest rules to determine winners and losers does anyone come to believe intangible advantages/disadvantages should be considered along with wins and losses. Just recently, Golden State lost a star player for the season in a game one playoff loss to Denver. No one is suggesting the Warriors be credited with a win or be compensated in future games due to their missing player. The injury is unfortunate but no team is immune to such things. That is sports.

Ultimately, the biggest problem I see is that too many people in college football believe competition is about quantifying, identifying, or validating the best team whichever team they imagine that to be. The truth is that competition is about determining a winner. Most competitions use rules that define what is most valuable and leave it up to the teams to beat each other based on those rules. Of course the rules can be designed to challenge teams which favors the best team but being the best team is only a competitive advantage towards winning a competition. If the best team fails to accomplish what is most valuable under the rules in play, it wins nothing for being the best team.

Championship Games

Listed below are the top two bowl teams for the Official and Prorated Power Points Standings, Associated Press and Coaches polls, and the BCS Standings. Listed in parentheses for teams favored by the Official/Prorated Power Points Standings is that team's best regular season finish among bowl teams in the AP, CP, or BCS. Listed in parentheses for the teams favored by the AP, CP, and BCS is that team's best regular season finish among bowl teams in the Official or Prorated Power Points Standings.

1978 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Southern Cal(3) Penn State(1)
PPP Southern Cal(3) Penn State(1)
AP Penn State(2) Alabama(3)
CP Penn State(2) Alabama(3)

1979 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Brigham Young(9) Florida State(4)
PPP Brigham Young(9) McNeese State(NR)
AP Ohio State(4) Alabama(6)
CP Alabama(6) Southern Cal(5)

1980 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida State(2) Pittsburgh(3)
PPP Florida State(2) Pittsburgh(3)
AP Georgia(7) Florida State(1)
CP Georgia(7) Florida State(1)

1981 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Clemson(1) Pittsburgh(8)
PPP Clemson(1) Pittsburgh(8)
AP Clemson(1) Georgia(5)
CP Clemson(1) Georgia(5)

1982 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Georgia(1) Penn State(2)
PPP Georgia(1) Penn State(2)
AP Georgia(1) Penn State(2)
CP Georgia(1) Penn State(2)

1983 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Auburn(3) Nebraska(1)
PPP Auburn(3) Texas(2)
AP Nebraska(2) Texas(2)
CP Nebraska(2) Texas(2)

1984 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Brigham Young(1) Washington(3)
PPP Washington(3) Brigham Young(1)
AP Brigham Young(1) Oklahoma(3)
CP Brigham Young(1) Oklahoma (3)

1985 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Penn State(1) Oklahoma(2)
PPP Oklahoma(2) Penn State(1)
AP Penn State(1) Miami(6)
CP Penn State(1) Oklahoma(1)

1986 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Penn State(2) Michigan(4)
PPP Penn State(2) Miami(1)
AP Miami(2) Penn State(1)
CP Miami(2) Penn State(1)

1987 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Miami(2) Florida State(3)
PPP Miami(2) Florida State(3)
AP Oklahoma(4) Miami(1)
CP Oklahoma(4) Miami(1)

1988 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Notre Dame(1) Southern Cal(5)
PPP Southern Cal(5) Notre Dame(1)
AP Notre Dame(1) Miami(3)
CP Notre Dame(1) Miami(3)

1989 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Notre Dame(4) Colorado(1)
PPP Notre Dame(4) Colorado(1)
AP Colorado(2) Miami(5)
CP Colorado(2) Miami(5)

1990 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Colorado(1) Texas(3)
PPP Texas(3) Colorado(1)
AP Colorado(1) Georgia Tech(3)
CP Colorado(1) Georgia Tech(3)

1991 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Miami(1) Washington(1)
PPP Miami(1) Florida(3)
AP Miami(1) Washington(2)
CP Washington(2) Miami(1)

1992 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Alabama(2) Miami(1)
PPP Alabama(2) Miami(1)
AP Miami(2) Alabama(1)
CP Miami(2) Alabama(1)

1993 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida State(1) Nebraska(1)
PPP Nebraska(1) Florida State(1)
AP Florida State(1) Nebraska(1)
CP Nebraska(1) West Virginia(3)

1994 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Nebraska(1) Penn State(2)
PPP Nebraska(1) Penn State(2)
AP Nebraska(1) Penn State(2)
CP Nebraska(1) Penn State(2)

1995 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida(2) Nebraska(1)
PPP Florida(2) Nebraska(1)
AP Nebraska(2) Florida(1)
CP Nebraska(2) Florida(1)

1996 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida State(1) Arizona State(2)
PPP Florida State(1) Arizona State(2)
AP Florida State(1) Arizona State(2)
CP Florida State(1) Arizona State(2)

1997 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Tennessee(3) Michigan(1)
PPP Michigan(1) Tennessee(3)
AP Michigan(1) Nebraska(3)
CP Michigan(1) Nebraska(3)

1998 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida State(2) Tennessee(1)
PPP Tennessee(1) Florida State(2)
AP Tennessee(1) Florida State(1)
CP Tennessee(1) Florida State(1)
BCS Tennessee(1) Florida State(1)

1999 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida State(1) Alabama(4)
PPP Florida State(1) Virginia Tech(2)
AP Florida State(1) Virginia Tech(2)
CP Florida State(1) Virginia Tech(2)
BCS Florida State(1) Virginia Tech(2)

2000 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Oklahoma(1) Florida State(2)
PPP Oklahoma(1) Florida State(2)
AP Oklahoma(1) Miami(3)
CP Oklahoma(1) Miami(3)
BCS Oklahoma(1) Florida State(2)

2001 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Miami(1) Nebraska(2)
PPP Miami(1) Nebraska(2)
AP Miam(1) Oregon(5)
CP Miami(1) Oregon(5)
BCS Miami(1) Nebraska(2)

2002 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Ohio State(2) Miami(1)
PPP Miami(1) Ohio State(2)
AP Miami(1) Ohio State(1)
CP Miami(1) Ohio State(1)
BCS Miami(1) Ohio State(1)

2003 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Oklahoma(1) LSU(2)
PPP Oklahoma(1) LSU(2)
AP Southern Cal(3) LSU(2)
CP Southern Cal(3) LSU(2)
BCS Oklahoma(1) LSU(2)

2004 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Oklahoma(2) Southern Cal(1)
PPP Auburn(3) Oklahoma(2)
AP Southern Cal(2) Oklahoma(1)
CP Southern Cal(2) Oklahoma(1)
BCS Southern Cal(2) Oklahoma(1)

2005 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Southern Cal(1) Texas(2)
PPP Southern Cal(1) Texas(2)
AP Southern Cal(1) Texas(2)
CP Southern Cal(1) Texas(2)
BCS Southern Cal(1) Texas(2)

2006 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Florida(2) Michigan(3)
PPP Florida(2) Michigan(3)
AP Ohio State(3) Florida(1)
CP Ohio State(3) Florida(1)
BCS Ohio State(3) Florida(1)

2007 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP LSU(2) Virginia Tech(3)
PPP Virginia Tech(3) Ohio State(1)
AP Ohio State(2) LSU(1)
CP Ohio State(2) LSU(1)
BCS Ohio State(2) LSU(1)

2008 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Oklahoma(1) Texas(3)
PPP Oklahoma(1) Florida(1)
AP Florida(2) Oklahoma(1)
CP Oklahoma(1) Florida(2)
BCS Oklahoma(1) Florida(2)

2009 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Alabama(1) Texas(2)
PPP Alabama(1) Texas(2)
AP Alabama(1) Texas(2)
CP Alabama(1) Texas(2)
BCS Alabama(1) Texas(2)

2010 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Auburn(1) Oklahoma(7)
PPP Auburn(1) TCU (3)
AP Auburn(1) Oregon(3)
CP Oregon(3) Auburn(1)
BCS Auburn(1) Oregon(3)

2011 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP LSU(1) Oklahoma State(3)
PPP LSU(1) Oklahoma State(3)
AP LSU(1) Alabama(3)
CP LSU(1) Alabama(3)
BCS LSU(1) Alabama(3)

2012 FIRST PLACE SECOND PLACE
OPP Notre Dame(1) Stanford(6)
PPP Notre Dame(1) Florida(3)
AP Notre Dame(1) Alabama(4)
CP Notre Dame(1) Alabama(4)
BCS Notre Dame(1) Alabama(4)

Top 4 Playoff: Official/Prorated Power Points vs. AP/BCS

Under the best possible circumstances, all FBS teams would play equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and knowingly compete according to the Power Points System's rules. That said, based on FBS games only, I have compared the official Power Points Standings and those standings prorated for an equal number games for all teams to the final regular season standings for the AP Poll and BCS to determine the closest result. Due to the lack of equal maximum game schedules, the official standings favor teams that play more games and the prorated standings favor teams that play fewer games. The closest result for each season is determined by number of top four matches, fewest game outcomes changed from matching all four teams, and best AP/BCS rank. Disputed teams are listed with their AP/BCS rank depending on which provided the closest result. Teams ineligible for the BCS are discounted when comparing the official/prorated standings to the former. Example: 2012 Ohio State.

1978 3,1 #10 Notre Dame > #4 Oklahoma
1979 2,2 #6 Arkansas, #9 BYU > #2 Alabama, #3 USC
1980 2,4 #7 Notre Dame, #14 BYU > #1 Georgia, #4 Oklahoma
1981 1,4 #7 Penn State, #9 Miami, #10 Pittsburgh > #2 Georgia, #3 Alabama, #4 Nebraska
1982 3,1 #5 UCLA > #4 SMU
1983 3,1 #9 BYU > #4 Illinois
1984 4,0
1985 3,1 #6 Florida > #2 Miami
1986 3,1 #5 LSU > #4 Michigan
1987 4,0
1988 3,4 #5 USC > #3 West Virginia
1989 3,1 #8 Tennessee > #2 Miami
1990 4,0
1991 4,0
1992 4,0
1993 3,2 #5 Auburn > #4 Notre Dame
1994 3,2 #6 Alabama > #4 Colorado
1995 4,0
1996 4,0
1997 4,0
1998 2,2 #5 UCLA, #6 Texas A&M > #3 Kansas State, #4 Ohio State
1999 4,0
2000 4,0
2001 3,1 #6 Tennessee > #4 Oregon
2002 4,0
2003 3,1 #5 Ohio State > #4 Michigan
2004 4,0
2005 4,0
2006 3,1 #8 Boise State > #4 LSU
2007 3,1 #6 Missouri > #1 Ohio State
2008 3,2 #6 Utah > #4 Alabama
2009 3,1 #5 Florida > #4 TCU
2010 3,1 #7 Michigan State > #4 Wisconsin
2011 3,1 #8 Boise State > #4 Stanford
2012 4,0

Notes:
1986-Michigan finished 2nd in Official Power Points Standings.
2007-Ohio State finished 2nd in Prorated Power Points Standings.
2011-Stanford finished 4th in Official Power Points Standings.

Based on the closest results above, the Official/Prorated Power Standings matched the AP/BCS on 114 of 140 top four teams since 1978 (35 seasons) and 106 of 124 top four teams since 1982. 16 of the 26 disputed teams favored by AP/BCS are the #4 team. All six AP/BCS teams ranked 9th or worse and favored by Power Points Standings occurred during first six years (1978-1983). The Official/Prorated Power Points Standings are only 35 changed game outcomes removed from matching the AP/BCS on all 140 top four teams.

Top 4 Playoff: Power Points vs. AP Poll

Listed below is how many teams with each rank made the competing system's top four through regular season competition since 1978 (35 seasons).

#	PPS	AP
1	34	32
2	30	27
3	22	27
4	15	15
5	15	11
6	8	7
7	7	6
8	3	6
9	3	5
10	0	3
11	1	0
12	0	0
13	1	0
14	0	1
15	1	0

Top 4 Playoff: Power Points vs. AP Poll

1-Since 1978 (35 seasons) the Power Points System and AP Poll have agreed on 101 of 140 (72%) top four teams. Since 1982 (31 seasons), the PPS and AP have agreed on 93 of 124 (75%) top four teams.

2-Since 1978, there have been 21,569 regular season games played between FBS opponents. The PPS could match the AP on all top four teams by changing the outcomes of 56 games in 35 seasons.

3-The PPS agreed on all top four teams seven times in 35 seasons and agreed on three teams in 18 other seasons. In 20 seasons, the PPS was no more more than one game outcome reversed from matching the AP's top four teams.

4-Both the PPS and AP had 19 top three teams (combined) and 20 #4 teams miss other system's top four.

5-Based on final Power Points Standings, 128 of 140 AP top four teams controlled their destiny towards making the PPS top four. That means 128 different teams would have made the PPS top four if they won all of their games and all other results remained unchanged. Among the 12 teams that did not control their destiny, eight would would have needed help in one game if they had won all of their games.

6-Among the 140 AP top four teams, 133 finished the regular season 0-1 changed game outcomes removed from a PPS top four finish. Five teams were two games removed, one team was three games removed and one team was four games removed.

7-Between the two systems, 53 different teams were ranked first and 49 made both top fours. 60 different teams were ranked second and 49 made both top fours. 61 different teams were ranked third and 40 made both top fours. 63 different teams were ranked fourth and 23 made both top fours.

8-Among the disputed top four teams, PPS favored teams are 87-42-1 versus AP ranked teams. AP favored teams are 73-26-2 vs AP ranked teams.

9-The 39 disputed top four teams make 63 disputed pairs. Based on most wins versus AP ranked competition, PPS favored teams own a 32-18-13 advantage. Among the 13 tied pairs, PPS favored teams own an 8-1-4 advantage based on average rank of AP ranked opponents defeated. Overall, PPS favored teams own a 40-19-4 advantage when it comes to beating more ranked AP teams or beating an equal amount with a higher average AP rank.

10-Based on most games played versus AP ranked competition, PPS favored teams own a 40-16-7 advantage. Among the seven tied pairs, PPS favored teams own a 5-2 advantage based on average rank of AP ranked opponents played. Overall, PPS favored teams own a 45-18 advantage when it comes to playing more ranked AP teams or playing an equal amount with a higher average AP rank. 

2013 NCAA Tournament Field

Note: This is an approximation of the Power Points System based on winning percentages found at warrennolan.com.

1 Gonzaga
2 New Mexico
3 Duke
4 Louisville
5 Kansas
6 Memphis
7 Miami
8 Indiana
9 Florida
10 Georgetown
11 Saint Louis
12 Ohio State
13 Middle Tennessee
14 Belmont
15 Michigan State
16 Arizona
17 Kansas State
18 Virginia Commonwealth
19 Saint Mary's College
20 Syracuse
21 Michigan
22 Creighton
23 Butler
24 Marquette
25 Akron
26 Bucknell
27 UCLA
28 Oklahoma State
29 North Carolina
30 UNLV
31 Colorado State
32 Wichita State
33 Pittsburgh
34 Notre Dame
35 Oregon
36 Wisconsin
37 Louisiana Tech
38 Southern Miss
39 Stephen F. Austin
40 Temple
41 North Carolina State
42 Valparaiso
43 Davidson
44 Missouri
45 Ole Miss
46 Montana
47 San Diego State
48 Cincinnati
49 La Salle
50 Weber State
51 Colorado
52 Iowa State
53 Illinois
54 Minnesota
55 New Mexico State
56 South Dakota State
57 Northwestern State
58 Florida Gulf Coast
59 Harvard
60 Albany
61 Pacific
62 Iona
63 Southern
64 Western Kentucky
65 Long Island
66 James Madison
67 North Carolina A&T
68 Liberty

IN POWER POINTS FIELD: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Stephen F. Austin, and Weber State
IN ACTUAL NCAA FIELD: Oklahoma, California, Boise State, and Villanova

All-Time Power Points Standings (1978-2012)

FBS GAMES ONLY
1 -Florida State 1453.5
2 -Nebraska 1441.5
3 -Florida 1340.0
3 -Ohio State 1340.0
5 -Michigan 1298.5
6 -Oklahoma 1276.5
7 -Alabama 1262.0
8 -Miami-Florida 1251.0
9 -Penn State 1217.5
10 -Southern California 1197.0
11 -Texas 1089.5
12 -Georgia 1058.0
13 -Notre Dame 1036.0
14 -Auburn 948.5
15 -Tennessee 941.0
16 -Brigham Young 914.5
17 -Louisiana State 839.5
18 -Clemson 706.0
19 -Virginia Tech 695.0
20 -UCLA 689.0
21 -Texas A&M 662.0
22 -Washington 620.0
23 -Arkansas 575.0
24 -Oregon 562.5
25 -West Virginia 560.5
26 -Boise State 513.0
27 -Iowa 408.5
28 -Wisconsin 354.5
29 -Arizona State 343.0
30 -Michigan State 282.0
31 -Utah 273.0
32 -Pittsburgh 261.0
33 -South Carolina 239.5
34 -Colorado 219.5
35 -Texas Tech 211.0
36 -North Carolina 209.5
37 -Arizona 204.5
38 -Syracuse 203.5
39 -Stanford 184.5
40 -Southern Mississippi 181.0
41 -Oklahoma State 157.5
42 -Georgia Tech 129.5
43 -Boston College 128.0
44 -Fresno State 121.5
45 -Toledo 116.0
46 -Virginia 103.0
47 -Air Force 86.5
48 -North Carolina State 82.0
49 -McNeese State 73.0
50 -Yale 70.5
51 -Kansas State 60.5
51 -Maryland 60.5
53 -South Florida 58.0
54 -Texas Christian 28.5
55 -Chattanooga 22.5
56 -Furman 18.5
57 -Louisville 17.0
58 -Dartmouth 9.0
58 -Tennessee State 9.0
60 -Princeton -3.0
61 -Brown -3.5
62 -Missouri -7.0
63 -Harvard -8.0
63 -UTSA -8.0
65 -Holy Cross -8.5
66 -Southern Illinois -13.5
67 -Cornell -16.0
67 -West Texas A&M -16.0
69 -Drake -19.5
70 -Villanova -21.5
71 -Citadel -25.5
72 -Texas-Arlington -26.5
73 -Colgate -27.0
74 -Texas State -30.0
75 -Purdue -36.0
76 -East Tennessee State -39.0
77 -VMI -46.5
78 -California -47.0
79 -Indiana State -47.5
80 -Western Carolina -60.0
81 -South Alabama -61.0
82 -Lamar -62.0
83 -Massachusetts -65.0
84 -Appalachian State -65.5
85 -Bowling Green -69.5
86 -Mississippi -74.0
86 -Connecticut -74.0
88 -William & Mary -75.5
89 -Marshall -76.5
90 -Illinois State -78.0
91 -Nevada -91.5
92 -Hawaii -95.5
92 -Pennsylvania -95.5
94 -Columbia -97.5
95 -Houston -100.5
96 -Troy -114.0
97 -Richmond -129.0
98 -Miami-Ohio -130.5
99 -Mississippi State -132.5
100 -Central Michigan -142.0
101 -Central Florida -174.0
102 -Long Beach State -179.0
103 -Wichita State -179.5
104 -Western Kentucky -180.0
105 -East Carolina -181.0
106 -Cincinnati -185.5
107 -Baylor -199.0
108 -Illinois -218.5
109 -Colorado State -224.0
110 -Florida Atlantic -226.0
111 -Washington State -229.0
112 -Middle Tennessee State -239.0
113 -Wyoming -247.5
114 -San Diego State -252.0
115 -Florida International -261.0
116 -Western Michigan -267.0
117 -Tulsa -268.0
118 -Cal State Fullerton -268.5
119 -Northern Illinois -313.5
120 -Ball State -318.5
121 -Louisiana Tech -320.5
122 -Minnesota -350.0
123 -Oregon State -371.0
124 -Kentucky -379.5
125 -Rutgers -405.0
126 -UAB -416.0
127 -Pacific -442.0
128 -Kansas -443.0
129 -Southern Methodist -452.5
130 -Navy -455.0
131 -Wake Forest -474.5
132 -San Jose State -491.5
133 -Iowa State -498.5
134 -Louisiana-Monroe -500.5
135 -Idaho -512.0
136 -Buffalo -549.0
137 -North Texas -569.0
138 -Indiana -585.0
139 -Arkansas State -592.5
140 -Utah State -594.5
141 -Northwestern -599.5
142 -Akron -624.0
143 -Louisiana-Lafayette -672.0
144 -UNLV -691.5
145 -Ohio -703.5
146 -New Mexico -711.0
147 -Temple -716.0
148 -Rice -727.5
149 -Memphis -785.5
150 -Vanderbilt -823.0
151 -Tulane -842.5
152 -Army -890.5
153 -Duke -896.5
154 -Eastern Michigan -943.0
155 -Kent State -1052.5
156 -UTEP -1088.0
157 -New Mexico State -1296.0

Margin of Victory

The Power Points System is all about schedule strength. Margin of victory (MOV) receives no consideration. It is my opinion that rewarding MOV will only encourage weak scheduling as teams will attempt to schedule lesser opponents that they are more likely to blowout with less risk of loss. That said, I decided to apply MOV (or average scoring margin) to the Power Points System to see what kind of results it gets. Each team's average scoring margin is added to their power points total to determine a new total and then all teams are ranked accordingly. Here is how the AP top 25 teams ranked amongst each other based on the scoring margin and schedule strength rules respectively.

1 -Alabama 1 2
2 -Oregon 2 5
3 -Ohio State 6 6
4 -Notre Dame 3 1
5 -Texas A&M 7 9
5 -Georgia 8 7
7 -Stanford 5 3
8 -South Carolina 11 8
9 -Florida 4 4
10 -Florida State 9 11
11 -Clemson 12 12
12 -Kansas State 10 10
13 -Louisville 20 17
14 -Louisiana State 15 15
15 -Oklahoma 14 14
16 -Utah State 16 18
17 -Northwestern 22 23
18 -Boise State 18 19
19 -Texas 23 22
20 -Oregon State 21 21
21 -San Jose State 13 13
22 -Northern Illinois 17 20
23 -Vanderbilt 25 25
24 -Michigan 24 24
25 -Nebraska 19 16

The scoring margin and schedule strength rules agreed on the highest ranked team in 282 of 300 pairs (94%). Among the 18 disputed pairs, the AP sided with the scoring margin rules 10 times (56%). The 18 teams favored by scoring margin rules only needed to win one more game versus their weaker schedules to rank higher under the schedule strength rules. The 18 teams favored by the schedule strength rules only needed to win one more game versus their stronger schedules to rank higher under the scoring margin rules.

16 of the 18 teams favored by the scoring margin rules played at least one FCS opponent. FCS wins were artificially valued at 0 power points and the 18 SM favored teams finished on average less than four power points behind the SS favored teams under the schedule strength only rules.

On average, the 25 teams gained/lost 1.2 places between the two sets of rules. Oregon and Northern Illinois gained three spots due to scoring margin rules. South Carolina and Louisville dropped three spots due to scoring margin rules.

Power Points System vs Final AP Poll

This year's Power Points Standings counted all games with FCS wins and losses treated as equal to the least valuable FBS win (Southern Mississippi) and loss (New Mexico State). The best case scenario for the Power Points System is for all FBS teams to know the rules and compete accordingly while playing equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only. None of these conditions exist. Obviously, its best if teams know the rules they are playing by in order to pursue schedules in their best interests. Furthermore, equal maximum game schedules gives all teams equal maximum possible power points. However, as things stand, some teams can earn extra games that others cannot. Finally, the artificial values assigned to FCS games are for demonstrative purposes only. If it were necessary to accommodate these games, they would be treated differently than they are here. All of this meant to add context to the results.

This year the Power Points Standings and the AP Poll agreed on 22 top 25 teams. The PPS favored Arkansas State, Tulsa, and Kent State. The AP favored Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Michigan. That said, among AP top 25 teams only, the two systems agreed on the higher ranked team in 257 of 300 pairs (86%). Four teams favored by the PPS (Stanford, Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska) accounted for 26 of 43 disputed pairs. Among the 43 disputed pairs, at least five AP pollsters (out of 59) sided with the PPS on 32 pairs. Four disputed pairs saw the PPS favor teams that no AP pollster favored. Those pairs are Notre Dame over Alabama, Florida over Oregon, San Jose State over LSU, and Nebraska over Louisville. (Officially, Alabama was awarded first place as the top bowl champion despite finishing with fewer power points than Notre Dame.)

Among the 43 disputed pairs, 11 involved teams separated by one spot in AP, nine by two spots, six by three spots, and the remaining 17 by four or more spots with Nebraska over Louisville (12 spots) being the largest difference. Once again, four teams favored by the PPS (same four mentioned before) accounted for 16 of the 17 largest differences. If we remove Stanford, Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska and compare the remaining teams, the PPS and AP agree on 193 of 210 pairs (92%). Among the 17 disputed pairs, seven involve teams separated by one spot in AP, six by two spots, three by three spots, and one by five spots (NIU over Northwestern). Overall, there are 11 disputed pairs in which the PPS favored team was favored by two or less AP pollsters. Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska account for eight of the 11.

Among the 43 disputed pairs, PPS favored teams own a 23-13-7 advantage based on most wins versus AP ranked teams. The advantage is 23-7-5 when the PPS is not favoring San Jose State. Among the 43 disputed pairs, PPS favored teams own 78 wins versus AP ranked teams. AP favored teams own 57 such wins. On nine occasions, a PPS favored team defeated at least two more AP ranked teams. Only one AP favored team defeated at least two more AP ranked teams.

Bowl Champions Standings

Listed below is the order of finish for bowl champions in the Power Points Standings (left) and the AP and Coaches Poll (right) respectively.

1 -Alabama 1 1
2 -Stanford 5 5
3 -Oregon 2 2
4 -Georgia 3 3
5 -South Carolina 6 6
6 -Texas A&M 4 4
7 -Florida State 7 7
8 -Clemson 8 8
9 -San Jose State 14 15
10 -Louisville 9 9
11 -Utah State 10 12
12 -Arkansas State 20 21
13 -Boise State 12 10
14 -Tulsa 19 17
15 -Texas 13 13
16 -Northwestern 11 11
17 -Cincinnati 17 16
18 -Central Florida 21 20
19 -Arizona na 23
20 -Vanderbilt 15 14
21 -Baylor 16 18
22 -Oklahoma State 18 19
23 -Michigan State na na
24 -Louisiana-Lafayette na na
25 -Brigham Young na na
26 -Syracuse na na
27 -Texas Tech na na
28 -Virginia Tech na na
29 -Ohio na 24
30 -Mississippi na na
31 -Arizona State na 22
32 -Georgia Tech na na
33 -Southern Methodist na na
34 -Rice na na
35 -Central Michigan na na

2012 Power Points Standings thru 01-07

Note: Top bowl winner is awarded first place.

1 -Alabama 82
2 -Notre Dame 85
3 -Stanford 79
4 -Florida 78
5 -Oregon 74
6 -Ohio State 73
7 -Georgia 63
8 -South Carolina 62
9 -Texas A&M 61
10 -Kansas State 61
11 -Florida State 56
12 -Clemson 56
13 -San Jose State 56
14 -Oklahoma 52
15 -Louisiana State 51
16 -Nebraska 48
17 -Louisville 44
18 -Utah State 43
19 -Arkansas State 43
20 -Boise State 42
21 -Northern Illinois 41
22 -Tulsa 39
23 -Oregon State 39
24 -Texas 38
25 -Kent State 37
26 -Northwestern 37
27 -Michigan 34
28 -Cincinnati 33
29 -Ball State 33
30 -UCLA 32
31 -Central Florida 30
32 -Penn State 30
33 -Louisiana Tech 28
34 -Toledo 27
35 -Arizona 27
36 -Vanderbilt 26
37 -Fresno State 26
38 -Baylor 26
39 -Oklahoma State 25
40 -Michigan State 24
41 -San Diego State 22
42 -Wisconsin 22
43 -Rutgers 20
44 -Louisiana-Lafayette 20
45 -Brigham Young 19
46 -Syracuse 18
47 -Texas Tech 16
48 -North Carolina 15
49 -Navy 15
50 -Miami-Florida 15
51 -Mississippi State 14
52 -Southern California 14
53 -Washington 13
54 -Virginia Tech 13
55 -Middle Tennessee State 11
56 -Ohio 10
57 -Mississippi 10
58 -Louisiana-Monroe 8
59 -Texas Christian 8
60 -Arizona State 7
61 -West Virginia 7
62 -Missouri 7
63 -Bowling Green 5
64 -Georgia Tech 5
65 -East Carolina 3
66 -Iowa State 3
67 -North Carolina State 0
68 -Southern Methodist -1
69 -Duke -3
70 -UTSA -5
71 -Western Kentucky -5
72 -Rice -6
73 -Pittsburgh -8
74 -Tennessee -8
75 -Central Michigan -10
76 -Nevada -11
77 -Purdue -11
78 -Arkansas -12
79 -Wake Forest -14
80 -Minnesota -15
81 -Connecticut -16
82 -Utah -18
83 -Troy -18
84 -Houston -18
85 -Iowa -19
86 -Miami-Ohio -20
87 -Marshall -22
88 -Air Force -23
89 -Temple -23
90 -North Texas -23
91 -Auburn -24
92 -Buffalo -25
93 -California -25
94 -Virginia -26
95 -South Florida -27
96 -Indiana -28
97 -Texas State -29
98 -Colorado State -30
99 -Maryland -31
100 -Wyoming -31
101 -Kentucky -34
102 -Western Michigan -35
103 -Memphis -35
104 -Florida International -36
105 -Florida Atlantic -37
106 -Washington State -40
107 -UAB -41
108 -UTEP -43
109 -Illinois -44
110 -Boston College -45
111 -Eastern Michigan -46
112 -New Mexico -47
113 -Hawaii -47
114 -Tulane -47
115 -Army -49
116 -Kansas -51
117 -Idaho -54
118 -Colorado -57
119 -UNLV -59
120 -South Alabama -61
121 -Akron -63
122 -Massachusetts -64
123 -New Mexico State -66
124 -Southern Mississippi -68