Tuesday, January 15, 2013

All-Time Power Points Standings (1978-2012)

FBS GAMES ONLY
1 -Florida State 1453.5
2 -Nebraska 1441.5
3 -Florida 1340.0
3 -Ohio State 1340.0
5 -Michigan 1298.5
6 -Oklahoma 1276.5
7 -Alabama 1262.0
8 -Miami-Florida 1251.0
9 -Penn State 1217.5
10 -Southern California 1197.0
11 -Texas 1089.5
12 -Georgia 1058.0
13 -Notre Dame 1036.0
14 -Auburn 948.5
15 -Tennessee 941.0
16 -Brigham Young 914.5
17 -Louisiana State 839.5
18 -Clemson 706.0
19 -Virginia Tech 695.0
20 -UCLA 689.0
21 -Texas A&M 662.0
22 -Washington 620.0
23 -Arkansas 575.0
24 -Oregon 562.5
25 -West Virginia 560.5
26 -Boise State 513.0
27 -Iowa 408.5
28 -Wisconsin 354.5
29 -Arizona State 343.0
30 -Michigan State 282.0
31 -Utah 273.0
32 -Pittsburgh 261.0
33 -South Carolina 239.5
34 -Colorado 219.5
35 -Texas Tech 211.0
36 -North Carolina 209.5
37 -Arizona 204.5
38 -Syracuse 203.5
39 -Stanford 184.5
40 -Southern Mississippi 181.0
41 -Oklahoma State 157.5
42 -Georgia Tech 129.5
43 -Boston College 128.0
44 -Fresno State 121.5
45 -Toledo 116.0
46 -Virginia 103.0
47 -Air Force 86.5
48 -North Carolina State 82.0
49 -McNeese State 73.0
50 -Yale 70.5
51 -Kansas State 60.5
51 -Maryland 60.5
53 -South Florida 58.0
54 -Texas Christian 28.5
55 -Chattanooga 22.5
56 -Furman 18.5
57 -Louisville 17.0
58 -Dartmouth 9.0
58 -Tennessee State 9.0
60 -Princeton -3.0
61 -Brown -3.5
62 -Missouri -7.0
63 -Harvard -8.0
63 -UTSA -8.0
65 -Holy Cross -8.5
66 -Southern Illinois -13.5
67 -Cornell -16.0
67 -West Texas A&M -16.0
69 -Drake -19.5
70 -Villanova -21.5
71 -Citadel -25.5
72 -Texas-Arlington -26.5
73 -Colgate -27.0
74 -Texas State -30.0
75 -Purdue -36.0
76 -East Tennessee State -39.0
77 -VMI -46.5
78 -California -47.0
79 -Indiana State -47.5
80 -Western Carolina -60.0
81 -South Alabama -61.0
82 -Lamar -62.0
83 -Massachusetts -65.0
84 -Appalachian State -65.5
85 -Bowling Green -69.5
86 -Mississippi -74.0
86 -Connecticut -74.0
88 -William & Mary -75.5
89 -Marshall -76.5
90 -Illinois State -78.0
91 -Nevada -91.5
92 -Hawaii -95.5
92 -Pennsylvania -95.5
94 -Columbia -97.5
95 -Houston -100.5
96 -Troy -114.0
97 -Richmond -129.0
98 -Miami-Ohio -130.5
99 -Mississippi State -132.5
100 -Central Michigan -142.0
101 -Central Florida -174.0
102 -Long Beach State -179.0
103 -Wichita State -179.5
104 -Western Kentucky -180.0
105 -East Carolina -181.0
106 -Cincinnati -185.5
107 -Baylor -199.0
108 -Illinois -218.5
109 -Colorado State -224.0
110 -Florida Atlantic -226.0
111 -Washington State -229.0
112 -Middle Tennessee State -239.0
113 -Wyoming -247.5
114 -San Diego State -252.0
115 -Florida International -261.0
116 -Western Michigan -267.0
117 -Tulsa -268.0
118 -Cal State Fullerton -268.5
119 -Northern Illinois -313.5
120 -Ball State -318.5
121 -Louisiana Tech -320.5
122 -Minnesota -350.0
123 -Oregon State -371.0
124 -Kentucky -379.5
125 -Rutgers -405.0
126 -UAB -416.0
127 -Pacific -442.0
128 -Kansas -443.0
129 -Southern Methodist -452.5
130 -Navy -455.0
131 -Wake Forest -474.5
132 -San Jose State -491.5
133 -Iowa State -498.5
134 -Louisiana-Monroe -500.5
135 -Idaho -512.0
136 -Buffalo -549.0
137 -North Texas -569.0
138 -Indiana -585.0
139 -Arkansas State -592.5
140 -Utah State -594.5
141 -Northwestern -599.5
142 -Akron -624.0
143 -Louisiana-Lafayette -672.0
144 -UNLV -691.5
145 -Ohio -703.5
146 -New Mexico -711.0
147 -Temple -716.0
148 -Rice -727.5
149 -Memphis -785.5
150 -Vanderbilt -823.0
151 -Tulane -842.5
152 -Army -890.5
153 -Duke -896.5
154 -Eastern Michigan -943.0
155 -Kent State -1052.5
156 -UTEP -1088.0
157 -New Mexico State -1296.0

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Margin of Victory

The Power Points System is all about schedule strength. Margin of victory (MOV) receives no consideration. It is my opinion that rewarding MOV will only encourage weak scheduling as teams will attempt to schedule lesser opponents that they are more likely to blowout with less risk of loss. That said, I decided to apply MOV (or average scoring margin) to the Power Points System to see what kind of results it gets. Each team's average scoring margin is added to their power points total to determine a new total and then all teams are ranked accordingly. Here is how the AP top 25 teams ranked amongst each other based on the scoring margin and schedule strength rules respectively.

1 -Alabama 1 2
2 -Oregon 2 5
3 -Ohio State 6 6
4 -Notre Dame 3 1
5 -Texas A&M 7 9
5 -Georgia 8 7
7 -Stanford 5 3
8 -South Carolina 11 8
9 -Florida 4 4
10 -Florida State 9 11
11 -Clemson 12 12
12 -Kansas State 10 10
13 -Louisville 20 17
14 -Louisiana State 15 15
15 -Oklahoma 14 14
16 -Utah State 16 18
17 -Northwestern 22 23
18 -Boise State 18 19
19 -Texas 23 22
20 -Oregon State 21 21
21 -San Jose State 13 13
22 -Northern Illinois 17 20
23 -Vanderbilt 25 25
24 -Michigan 24 24
25 -Nebraska 19 16

The scoring margin and schedule strength rules agreed on the highest ranked team in 282 of 300 pairs (94%). Among the 18 disputed pairs, the AP sided with the scoring margin rules 10 times (56%). The 18 teams favored by scoring margin rules only needed to win one more game versus their weaker schedules to rank higher under the schedule strength rules. The 18 teams favored by the schedule strength rules only needed to win one more game versus their stronger schedules to rank higher under the scoring margin rules.

16 of the 18 teams favored by the scoring margin rules played at least one FCS opponent. FCS wins were artificially valued at 0 power points and the 18 SM favored teams finished on average less than four power points behind the SS favored teams under the schedule strength only rules.

On average, the 25 teams gained/lost 1.2 places between the two sets of rules. Oregon and Northern Illinois gained three spots due to scoring margin rules. South Carolina and Louisville dropped three spots due to scoring margin rules.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Power Points System vs Final AP Poll



This year's Power Points Standings counted all games with FCS wins and losses treated as equal to the least valuable FBS win (Southern Mississippi) and loss (New Mexico State). The best case scenario for the Power Points System is for all FBS teams to know the rules and compete accordingly while playing equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only. None of these conditions exist. Obviously, its best if teams know the rules they are playing by in order to pursue schedules in their best interests. Furthermore, equal maximum game schedules gives all teams equal maximum possible power points. However, as things stand, some teams can earn extra games that others cannot. Finally, the artificial values assigned to FCS games are for demonstrative purposes only. If it were necessary to accommodate these games, they would be treated differently than they are here. All of this meant to add context to the results.

This year the Power Points Standings and the AP Poll agreed on 22 top 25 teams. The PPS favored Arkansas State, Tulsa, and Kent State. The AP favored Northwestern, Vanderbilt, and Michigan. That said, among AP top 25 teams only, the two systems agreed on the higher ranked team in 257 of 300 pairs (86%). Four teams favored by the PPS (Stanford, Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska) accounted for 26 of 43 disputed pairs. Among the 43 disputed pairs, at least five AP pollsters (out of 59) sided with the PPS on 32 pairs. Four disputed pairs saw the PPS favor teams that no AP pollster favored. Those pairs are Notre Dame over Alabama, Florida over Oregon, San Jose State over LSU, and Nebraska over Louisville. (Officially, Alabama was awarded first place as the top bowl champion despite finishing with fewer power points than Notre Dame.)

Among the 43 disputed pairs, 11 involved teams separated by one spot in AP, nine by two spots, six by three spots, and the remaining 17 by four or more spots with Nebraska over Louisville (12 spots) being the largest difference. Once again, four teams favored by the PPS (same four mentioned before) accounted for 16 of the 17 largest differences. If we remove Stanford, Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska and compare the remaining teams, the PPS and AP agree on 193 of 210 pairs (92%). Among the 17 disputed pairs, seven involve teams separated by one spot in AP, six by two spots, three by three spots, and one by five spots (NIU over Northwestern). Overall, there are 11 disputed pairs in which the PPS favored team was favored by two or less AP pollsters. Florida, San Jose State, and Nebraska account for eight of the 11.

Among the 43 disputed pairs, PPS favored teams own a 23-13-7 advantage based on most wins versus AP ranked teams. The advantage is 23-7-5 when the PPS is not favoring San Jose State. Among the 43 disputed pairs, PPS favored teams own 78 wins versus AP ranked teams. AP favored teams own 57 such wins. On nine occasions, a PPS favored team defeated at least two more AP ranked teams. Only one AP favored team defeated at least two more AP ranked teams.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Bowl Champions Standings

Listed below is the order of finish for bowl champions in the Power Points Standings (left) and the AP and Coaches Poll (right) respectively.

1 -Alabama 1 1
2 -Stanford 5 5
3 -Oregon 2 2
4 -Georgia 3 3
5 -South Carolina 6 6
6 -Texas A&M 4 4
7 -Florida State 7 7
8 -Clemson 8 8
9 -San Jose State 14 15
10 -Louisville 9 9
11 -Utah State 10 12
12 -Arkansas State 20 21
13 -Boise State 12 10
14 -Tulsa 19 17
15 -Texas 13 13
16 -Northwestern 11 11
17 -Cincinnati 17 16
18 -Central Florida 21 20
19 -Arizona na 23
20 -Vanderbilt 15 14
21 -Baylor 16 18
22 -Oklahoma State 18 19
23 -Michigan State na na
24 -Louisiana-Lafayette na na
25 -Brigham Young na na
26 -Syracuse na na
27 -Texas Tech na na
28 -Virginia Tech na na
29 -Ohio na 24
30 -Mississippi na na
31 -Arizona State na 22
32 -Georgia Tech na na
33 -Southern Methodist na na
34 -Rice na na
35 -Central Michigan na na

2012 Power Points Standings thru 01-07

Note: Top bowl winner is awarded first place.

1 -Alabama 82
2 -Notre Dame 85
3 -Stanford 79
4 -Florida 78
5 -Oregon 74
6 -Ohio State 73
7 -Georgia 63
8 -South Carolina 62
9 -Texas A&M 61
10 -Kansas State 61
11 -Florida State 56
12 -Clemson 56
13 -San Jose State 56
14 -Oklahoma 52
15 -Louisiana State 51
16 -Nebraska 48
17 -Louisville 44
18 -Utah State 43
19 -Arkansas State 43
20 -Boise State 42
21 -Northern Illinois 41
22 -Tulsa 39
23 -Oregon State 39
24 -Texas 38
25 -Kent State 37
26 -Northwestern 37
27 -Michigan 34
28 -Cincinnati 33
29 -Ball State 33
30 -UCLA 32
31 -Central Florida 30
32 -Penn State 30
33 -Louisiana Tech 28
34 -Toledo 27
35 -Arizona 27
36 -Vanderbilt 26
37 -Fresno State 26
38 -Baylor 26
39 -Oklahoma State 25
40 -Michigan State 24
41 -San Diego State 22
42 -Wisconsin 22
43 -Rutgers 20
44 -Louisiana-Lafayette 20
45 -Brigham Young 19
46 -Syracuse 18
47 -Texas Tech 16
48 -North Carolina 15
49 -Navy 15
50 -Miami-Florida 15
51 -Mississippi State 14
52 -Southern California 14
53 -Washington 13
54 -Virginia Tech 13
55 -Middle Tennessee State 11
56 -Ohio 10
57 -Mississippi 10
58 -Louisiana-Monroe 8
59 -Texas Christian 8
60 -Arizona State 7
61 -West Virginia 7
62 -Missouri 7
63 -Bowling Green 5
64 -Georgia Tech 5
65 -East Carolina 3
66 -Iowa State 3
67 -North Carolina State 0
68 -Southern Methodist -1
69 -Duke -3
70 -UTSA -5
71 -Western Kentucky -5
72 -Rice -6
73 -Pittsburgh -8
74 -Tennessee -8
75 -Central Michigan -10
76 -Nevada -11
77 -Purdue -11
78 -Arkansas -12
79 -Wake Forest -14
80 -Minnesota -15
81 -Connecticut -16
82 -Utah -18
83 -Troy -18
84 -Houston -18
85 -Iowa -19
86 -Miami-Ohio -20
87 -Marshall -22
88 -Air Force -23
89 -Temple -23
90 -North Texas -23
91 -Auburn -24
92 -Buffalo -25
93 -California -25
94 -Virginia -26
95 -South Florida -27
96 -Indiana -28
97 -Texas State -29
98 -Colorado State -30
99 -Maryland -31
100 -Wyoming -31
101 -Kentucky -34
102 -Western Michigan -35
103 -Memphis -35
104 -Florida International -36
105 -Florida Atlantic -37
106 -Washington State -40
107 -UAB -41
108 -UTEP -43
109 -Illinois -44
110 -Boston College -45
111 -Eastern Michigan -46
112 -New Mexico -47
113 -Hawaii -47
114 -Tulane -47
115 -Army -49
116 -Kansas -51
117 -Idaho -54
118 -Colorado -57
119 -UNLV -59
120 -South Alabama -61
121 -Akron -63
122 -Massachusetts -64
123 -New Mexico State -66
124 -Southern Mississippi -68