Friday, February 6, 2009

2008 FCS Season

I followed the FCS season this year in order to see how the Power Points System compares to the NCAA selection committee. Since FCS teams do not play equal game schedules versus FCS competition only, I modified the rules to account for interdivisional play. This only amounted to assigning substitute values for higher and lower classification opponents respectively based on their combined efforts. For example, FBS teams posted an 85-2 record versus FCS teams. Projected over 12 games, all FBS opponents are treated as a 12-0 FCS team. Lower division opponents finished 15-87 versus FCS competition and each is treated as equal to a 2-10 FCS team. No modifications were made to account for unequal game schedules.

Although my desired playoff format determines automatic qualifiers in a different manner than the actual conferences, this comparison includes the actual automatic qualifiers (eight) plus the top remaining teams (eight). Listed below is the 2008 FCS playoff field if determined by the Power Points System. Teams are listed highest to lowest national standing followed by their order amongst each other in the media poll.

1-James Madison 1
2-Appalachian State 2
3-South Carolina State 12
4-Montana 5
5-Villanova 6
6-Cal Poly 3
7-Wofford 8
8-Richmond 7
9-Northern Iowa 4
10-New Hampshire 10
11-Southern Illinois 9
12-Eastern Kentucky 15
13-Weber State 11
14-Liberty 13
15-Colgate 14
16-Texas State 16

The NCAA committee selected Maine over Liberty making this the only disagreement over qualifiers between the two methods. That said, based on my desired playoff format, Montana and Northern Iowa would have replaced Weber State and Southern Illinois respectively as their conference’s automatic qualifiers. Furthermore, for those playoff opponents that insist a large playoff will allow teams to rest their starters in the final weekend, only four teams had clinched playoff berths under my proposed format entering the final weekend and three of these teams had two to three home playoff games at stake. James Madison had the least to lose in the final weekend. The worst fate for the Dukes would have been a three seed if they had lost their final game and Cal Poly beat Wisconsin thereby costing them a guaranteed home game in the semifinal round.

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