Wildcard Simulation

Suppose a 16-team playoff with auto bids becomes a reality. How would the wildcard berths be determined? By objective or subjective means? Listed below are the number of wildcard teams agreed on by the Power Points System and the Associated Press poll for each season since 1978. For the purposes of this post, only current FBS members were considered. Furthermore, the highest ranked member of each conference in the Power Points Standings based on current membership served as automatic qualifiers. This is done to eliminate 11 teams that would qualify no matter how the wildcard teams are determined. From here, the top five remaining teams in both systems are compared. For each season, the teams that the systems disagreed on are listed in parentheses with the teams favored by the Power Points System listed first. The systems agreed on 119 of 155 wildcards (over 31 seasons) which is five teams short of a four out of five average.

1978-5
1979-3 (South Carolina/Wake Forest or Purdue/Washington)
1980-4 (North Carolina or Michigan)
1981-3 (Arizona State/Southern Mississippi or North Carolina/Washington)
1982-3 (Southern California/Florida or West Virginia/Oklahoma)
1983-4 (Clemson or Florida)
1984-4 (Southern California or Maryland)
1985-4 (Alabama or Tennessee)
1986-2 (Washington/Alabama/Ohio State or Nebraska/Texas A&M/Auburn)
1987-4 (Notre Dame or South Carolina)
1988-5
1989-4 (Arkansas or Nebraska)
1990-4 (Southern California or Florida)
1991-4 (Nebraska or Iowa)
1992-4 (Ohio State or Georgia)
1993-4 (Miami-Florida or Wisconsin)
1994-5
1995-5
1996-3 (Washington/North Carolina or Tennessee/Northwestern)
1997-3 (Auburn/Georgia or UCLA/North Carolina)
1998-3 (Texas/Michigan or Florida/Arkansas)
1999-4 (Penn State or Wisconsin)
2000-4 (Kansas State or Nebraska)
2001-4 (Stanford or Maryland)
2002-2 (Notre Dame/Alabama/Michigan or Kansas State/Washington State/Penn State)
2003-4 (Georgia or Tennessee)
2004-4 (Arizona State or Georgia)
2005-4 (Louisiana State or Auburn)
2006-5
2007-4 (Boston College or Southern California)
2008-4 (Pittsburgh or Texas Christian)
AVG-3.8