Playoff Destiny

Under ideal circumstances, all FBS teams would play equal or equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and knowingly compete according to the rules of the Power Points System. That said, I have applied those rules to FBS games only for the past 35 seasons to determine how many AP poll top two, top four, and top eight teams controlled their playoff destiny based on how the season played out. In truth, no team controls their destiny from the start of competition because there are more mathematically possible unbeaten teams than available playoff berths and no automatic access to unbeaten teams.

TOP TWO
Since 1978, the AP and Power Points System (PPS) have agreed on 46 of 70 top two teams. 58 of 70 AP top two teams controlled their PPS top two playoff destiny. Seven more would have needed help in one game if undefeated/untied. Six of 12 teams that did not control destiny played less than a full schedule versus FBS competition.

TOP FOUR
Since 1978, the AP and PPS have agreed on 101 of 140 top four teams. 128 of 140 AP top four teams controlled their PPS top four playoff destiny. Eight more would have needed help in one game if undefeated/untied. Eight of 12 teams that did not control destiny played less than full schedule versus FBS competition.

TOP EIGHT
Since 1978, the AP and PPS have agreed on 217 of 280 top eight teams. 279 of 280 AP top eight teams controlled their PPS top eight playoff destiny. The one and only team that did not control its destiny would have needed help in one game if undefeated and untied and that same team only played nine FBS games out of an 11 game schedule.