Monday, September 18, 2023

Two Pac-12 Playoff Teams?

 

If we assume the eight Pac-12 teams currently ranked in AP Top 25 sweep their games versus Arizona, Arizona State, California, and Stanford, and the current highest ranked team wins all games between the ranked members, those eight teams will finish according to the graph below. This scenario will set up a rematch between USC and Washington in the league title game. If the Huskies win, both teams, assuming wins in any remaining non-conference games, finish 12-1. Is this the Pac-12's best chance for two playoff teams?  The fact that the league plays nine conference games and matches the top two teams makes it highly unlikely that the league can end on a high note of placing two teams in the College Football Playoff no matter how good the league may be. These eight teams are guaranteed 23 combined losses. That makes it difficult to end up with two CCG participants either undefeated or with one loss only and both teams still playoff contention much less a scenario where three teams finish with one loss with the odd team out having a better shot of being selected by the committee than the loser of the title game. And because there are no divisions, the #2 team will not be able to sit at home and back its way into the playoffs like 2017 Alabama and 2022 Ohio State. As great as the start to its final season as been, the odds of two Pac-12 teams making the playoffs is incredibly long due to nine conference games and no divisions. 




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