The threat of college football teams resting starters in late season games once they have clinched a playoff berth remains a popular argument against a large playoff system in that sport. The argument is without merit. Nevertheless, it persists and playoff opponents point to NFL teams resting starters on a frequent basis to support their claim. It is my position that the number of games each team plays and the number of teams in direct competition with each other has more to do with the frequency at which teams are able to rest starters than does the actual existence of a playoff. This is easily demonstrated by comparing the NFL with a no conference/division format to its current two conference/eight division format. For purposes here, I have adopted my own tiebreakers which emphasize how teams finished the season and I have applied these tiebreakers to both formats. Teams are placed by best record, best finish (win/loss streak), best schedule strength, best wins (defeated opponents' records), and best net points. Both formats have the same 15 teams still in contention for a playoff berth if they have not already clinched. Here is how those teams are placed with one week remaining under the no conference/division format followed by their best and worst case scenarios (E = eliminated):
1 Atlanta....... 13 2 0 2 1 3
2 Denver........ 12 3 0 10 1 5
3 Houston....... 12 3 0 -1 1 5
4 Green Bay..... 11 4 0 4 2 9
5 New England... 11 4 0 1 2 9
6 San Francisco. 10 4 1 -1 4 9
7 Seattle....... 10 5 0 4 4 E
8 Baltimore..... 10 5 0 1 4 E
9 Indianapolis.. 10 5 0 1 4 E
10 Washington.... 9 6 0 6 7 E
11 Minnesota..... 9 6 0 3 7 E
12 Cincinnati.... 9 6 0 2 7 E
13 Chicago....... 9 6 0 1 7 E
14 Dallas........ 8 7 0 -1 10 E
15 NY Giants..... 8 7 0 -2 10 E
TOP TWO OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, no teams has clinched homefield throughout the playoffs and five teams are still alive. Under the existing format, one team has clinched throughout and only three teams remain alive.
TOP FOUR OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, only one team has clinched a first round bye while eight others remain alive for a bye. Under the existing format, one team has also clinched but only six teams can still gain a bye.
TOP EIGHT OVERALL SEEDS
Under the No C/D format, three teams have clinched at least a first round home game while ten others can still do so. Under the existing format, five teams have clinched a first round home game while only seven teams can still do so.
TOP TWELVE OVERALL SEEDS.
Under the No C/D format, six teams have clinched playoff berths while nine more remain in contention for the final six berths. Under the existing format, nine teams have clinched playoff berths while six teams remain in contention for the final three berths.
Here we have the same number of teams playing the same number of games but one format places all teams in direct competition with each other at all times while the other format separates teams into conferences and divisions thereby reducing the number of teams in direct competition and allowing for teams to clinch playoff berths, homefield advantage, and byes much sooner. While its unlikely that NFL would ever consider eliminating conferences and divisions, the point here is that the setup has more to do with the frequency of teams being able to rest starters than the simple fact that the NFL has a larger playoff in comparison to college football. When I addressed this issue in a previous post, I had applied these rules to the previous 23 NFL seasons and only found nine teams that did not have a playoff berth, bye, or home game to gain/lose in the final weekend excluding teams eliminated from playoff contention. In at least one instance, a team could go from gaining homefield advantage to missing the playoffs altogether based on the final weekend's results. Also, based on a top 16 college football playoff determined by the Power Points Standings, only five teams in 32 seasons (at the time) had nothing to gain/lose in final weekend and all benefited from an extra game they likely wouldn't be afforded under ideal circumstances.
The bottom line is that larger playoffs are not to blame for sandbagging.
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