Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Prorated Power Points Standings vs. AP Poll

Once again, ideal circumstances call for all teams to play an equal number of regular season games (or equal maximum). To simulate an equal number of regular season games, I have prorated the actual results based on FBS games for 11 or 12 games for all teams in a given year depending on which number was the maximum allowed excluding exempted games. To be clear, prorating the results is not a viable way to use the Power Points System if actually used as this will unfairly reward/punish teams for playing fewer/more games respectively. I use it here for demonstrative purposes only to approximate what results we might we get if all FBS teams played equal game schedules versus FBS competition only. That said, after discounting non-bowl teams, I compared the Prorated Standings and the AP Poll to determine their top four matches. Listed below are the 33 AP favored teams that did not finish in PPS top four during the past 35 seasons. These teams are listed with with their AP rank among bowl teams to the left and with lowest rank in Coaches Poll or BCS listed in parentheses. 19 of the 33 teams ranked fourth in AP. 25 of 33 ranked fourth or worse in the AP, CP. or BCS. Since 1982, the Prorated Standings and the AP agreed on 100 of 124 top four teams in 31 seasons with 22 of the 24 AP favored teams ranked fourth or worse by AP, CP, or BCS.

1978 #4 Oklahoma
1979 #1 Ohio State (#3 in CP)
1979 #2 Alabama
1979 #3 Southern Cal
1980 #1 Georgia
1980 #4 Oklahoma
1981 #2 Georgia
1981 #3 Alabama
1981 #4 Nebraska
1982 #4 SMU
1983 #4 Illinois (#5 in CP)
1984 #4 Nebraska
1985 #2 Miami (#4 in CP)
1986 #4 Michigan
1988 #3 West Virginia
1989 #2 Miami
1993 #4 Notre Dame
1994 #4 Colorado (#5 in CP)
1995 #4 Tennessee
1998 #3 Ohio State (#4 in BCS)
1998 #4 Kansas State
1999 #4 Wisconsin (#7 in BCS)
2001 #2 Oregon (#4 in BCS)
2002 #3 Iowa (#5 in BCS)
2003 #4 Michigan
2004 #4 California (#5 in BCS)
2006 #4 LSU
2007 #3 Oklahoma (#4 in BCS)
2007 #4 Georgia (#5 in BCS)
2008 #4 Alabama
2009 #3 TCU (#4 in BCS)
2010 #4 Wisconsin (#5 in BCS)
2011 #4 Stanford

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