Monday, April 15, 2013

Top 4 Playoff: Power Points vs. AP Poll

1-Since 1978 (35 seasons) the Power Points System and AP Poll have agreed on 101 of 140 (72%) top four teams. Since 1982 (31 seasons), the PPS and AP have agreed on 93 of 124 (75%) top four teams.

2-Since 1978, there have been 21,569 regular season games played between FBS opponents. The PPS could match the AP on all top four teams by changing the outcomes of 56 games in 35 seasons.

3-The PPS agreed on all top four teams seven times in 35 seasons and agreed on three teams in 18 other seasons. In 20 seasons, the PPS was no more more than one game outcome reversed from matching the AP's top four teams.

4-Both the PPS and AP had 19 top three teams (combined) and 20 #4 teams miss other system's top four.

5-Based on final Power Points Standings, 128 of 140 AP top four teams controlled their destiny towards making the PPS top four. That means 128 different teams would have made the PPS top four if they won all of their games and all other results remained unchanged. Among the 12 teams that did not control their destiny, eight would would have needed help in one game if they had won all of their games.

6-Among the 140 AP top four teams, 133 finished the regular season 0-1 changed game outcomes removed from a PPS top four finish. Five teams were two games removed, one team was three games removed and one team was four games removed.

7-Between the two systems, 53 different teams were ranked first and 49 made both top fours. 60 different teams were ranked second and 49 made both top fours. 61 different teams were ranked third and 40 made both top fours. 63 different teams were ranked fourth and 23 made both top fours.

8-Among the disputed top four teams, PPS favored teams are 87-42-1 versus AP ranked teams. AP favored teams are 73-26-2 vs AP ranked teams.

9-The 39 disputed top four teams make 63 disputed pairs. Based on most wins versus AP ranked competition, PPS favored teams own a 32-18-13 advantage. Among the 13 tied pairs, PPS favored teams own an 8-1-4 advantage based on average rank of AP ranked opponents defeated. Overall, PPS favored teams own a 40-19-4 advantage when it comes to beating more ranked AP teams or beating an equal amount with a higher average AP rank.

10-Based on most games played versus AP ranked competition, PPS favored teams own a 40-16-7 advantage. Among the seven tied pairs, PPS favored teams own a 5-2 advantage based on average rank of AP ranked opponents played. Overall, PPS favored teams own a 45-18 advantage when it comes to playing more ranked AP teams or playing an equal amount with a higher average AP rank. 

No comments: