Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Top 4 Playoff: Official/Prorated Power Points vs. AP/BCS

Under the best possible circumstances, all FBS teams would play equal maximum game regular season schedules versus FBS competition only and knowingly compete according to the Power Points System's rules. That said, based on FBS games only, I have compared the official Power Points Standings and those standings prorated for an equal number games for all teams to the final regular season standings for the AP Poll and BCS to determine the closest result. Due to the lack of equal maximum game schedules, the official standings favor teams that play more games and the prorated standings favor teams that play fewer games. The closest result for each season is determined by number of top four matches, fewest game outcomes changed from matching all four teams, and best AP/BCS rank. Disputed teams are listed with their AP/BCS rank depending on which provided the closest result. Teams ineligible for the BCS are discounted when comparing the official/prorated standings to the former. Example: 2012 Ohio State.

1978 3,1 #10 Notre Dame > #4 Oklahoma
1979 2,2 #6 Arkansas, #9 BYU > #2 Alabama, #3 USC
1980 2,4 #7 Notre Dame, #14 BYU > #1 Georgia, #4 Oklahoma
1981 1,4 #7 Penn State, #9 Miami, #10 Pittsburgh > #2 Georgia, #3 Alabama, #4 Nebraska
1982 3,1 #5 UCLA > #4 SMU
1983 3,1 #9 BYU > #4 Illinois
1984 4,0
1985 3,1 #6 Florida > #2 Miami
1986 3,1 #5 LSU > #4 Michigan
1987 4,0
1988 3,4 #5 USC > #3 West Virginia
1989 3,1 #8 Tennessee > #2 Miami
1990 4,0
1991 4,0
1992 4,0
1993 3,2 #5 Auburn > #4 Notre Dame
1994 3,2 #6 Alabama > #4 Colorado
1995 4,0
1996 4,0
1997 4,0
1998 2,2 #5 UCLA, #6 Texas A&M > #3 Kansas State, #4 Ohio State
1999 4,0
2000 4,0
2001 3,1 #6 Tennessee > #4 Oregon
2002 4,0
2003 3,1 #5 Ohio State > #4 Michigan
2004 4,0
2005 4,0
2006 3,1 #8 Boise State > #4 LSU
2007 3,1 #6 Missouri > #1 Ohio State
2008 3,2 #6 Utah > #4 Alabama
2009 3,1 #5 Florida > #4 TCU
2010 3,1 #7 Michigan State > #4 Wisconsin
2011 3,1 #8 Boise State > #4 Stanford
2012 4,0

Notes:
1986-Michigan finished 2nd in Official Power Points Standings.
2007-Ohio State finished 2nd in Prorated Power Points Standings.
2011-Stanford finished 4th in Official Power Points Standings.

Based on the closest results above, the Official/Prorated Power Standings matched the AP/BCS on 114 of 140 top four teams since 1978 (35 seasons) and 106 of 124 top four teams since 1982. 16 of the 26 disputed teams favored by AP/BCS are the #4 team. All six AP/BCS teams ranked 9th or worse and favored by Power Points Standings occurred during first six years (1978-1983). The Official/Prorated Power Points Standings are only 35 changed game outcomes removed from matching the AP/BCS on all 140 top four teams.

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