Friday, July 12, 2013

Schedule Strength and Scoring Margin

I'm not a fan of using scoring margin or margin of victory beyond it serving as a tiebreaker like net points does in the Power Points System. However said, I'm certainly open to rewarding margin of victory or something similar if it leads to college football adopting an objective rules system. That said, to see what if any difference scoring margin might make if it applied to the Power Points System, I added average scoring margin to each team's power points/schedule strength totals and ranked teams accordingly. Below are the results after bowl games with FCS wins and losses treated as equal to the least valuable FBS wins and losses respectively. To the right of each team's name is its official standing (excluding average scoring margin), power points with ASM, power points without ASM, and average scoring margin. Although Alabama finished 2nd in the official standings despite its dominating win over Notre Dame in the BCS title, the power points system's true purpose is to determine playoff qualifiers and seeds and allow postseason results to determine the national champion. Notre Dame finishing first is similar to a team not winning the Super Bowl but still finishing with the best overall record. That said, the average team moved up or down 2.5 places between the two power points standings. Arizona State had biggest jump due to ASM moving from 60th to 50th place while Buffalo had the biggest drop falling from 92nd to 101st place.

1 -Alabama 2 109.8 82.0 27.8
2 -Oregon 5 102.0 74.0 28.0
3 -Notre Dame 1 98.0 85.0 13.0
4 -Florida 4 90.0 78.0 12.0
5 -Stanford 3 89.6 79.0 10.6
6 -Ohio State 6 87.3 73.0 14.3
7 -Texas A&M 9 83.7 61.0 22.7
8 -Georgia 7 81.1 63.0 18.1
9 -Florida State 11 80.6 56.0 24.6
10 -Kansas State 10 77.7 61.0 16.7
11 -South Carolina 8 75.3 62.0 13.3
12 -Clemson 12 72.2 56.0 16.2
13 -San Jose State 13 69.5 56.0 13.5
14 -Oklahoma 14 64.7 52.0 12.7
15 -Louisiana State 15 63.2 51.0 12.2
16 -Utah State 18 62.5 43.0 19.5
17 -Northern Illinois 21 59.7 41.0 18.7
18 -Boise State 20 56.5 42.0 14.5
19 -Nebraska 16 55.2 48.0 7.2
20 -Arkansas State 19 53.5 43.0 10.5
21 -Louisville 17 51.4 44.0 7.4
22 -Oregon State 23 50.9 39.0 11.9
23 -Tulsa 22 50.1 39.0 11.1
24 -Cincinnati 28 46.8 33.0 13.8
25 -Northwestern 26 46.2 37.0 9.2
26 -Kent State 25 45.6 37.0 8.6
27 -Texas 24 44.5 38.0 6.5
28 -Michigan 27 44.0 34.0 10.0
29 -Central Florida 31 43.4 30.0 13.4
30 -Oklahoma State 39 42.5 25.0 17.5
31 -Louisiana Tech 33 41.0 28.0 13.0
32 -Fresno State 37 40.1 26.0 14.1
33 -Penn State 32 40.0 30.0 10.0
34 -UCLA 30 38.7 32.0 6.7
35 -Vanderbilt 36 37.3 26.0 11.3
36 -Ball State 29 34.6 33.0 1.6
37 -Brigham Young 45 33.7 19.0 14.7
38 -Baylor 38 33.2 26.0 7.2
39 -Wisconsin 42 32.4 22.0 10.4
40 -San Diego State 41 30.5 22.0 8.5
41 -Toledo 34 30.2 27.0 3.2
42 -North Carolina 48 29.9 15.0 14.9
43 -Arizona 35 29.8 27.0 2.8
44 -Michigan State 40 27.7 24.0 3.7
45 -Louisiana-Lafayette 44 27.4 20.0 7.4
46 -Rutgers 43 27.3 20.0 7.3
47 -Syracuse 46 23.2 18.0 5.2
48 -Southern California 52 21.8 14.0 7.8
49 -Texas Tech 47 21.7 16.0 5.7
50 -Arizona State 60 21.1 7.0 14.1
51 -Mississippi State 51 20.2 14.0 6.2
52 -Ohio 56 16.9 10.0 6.9
53 -Miami-Florida 50 15.9 15.0 0.9
54 -Virginia Tech 54 15.2 13.0 2.2
55 -Navy 49 14.3 15.0 -0.7
56 -Mississippi 57 13.8 10.0 3.8
57 -Texas Christian 59 13.7 8.0 5.7
58 -Washington 53 12.8 13.0 -0.2
59 -Louisiana-Monroe 58 12.7 8.0 4.7
60 -Bowling Green 63 11.2 5.0 6.2
61 -Georgia Tech 64 10.3 5.0 5.3
62 -Middle Tennessee State 55 9.6 11.0 -1.4
63 -West Virginia 61 8.4 7.0 1.4
64 -Missouri 62 4.3 7.0 -2.7
65 -Southern Methodist 68 3.8 -1.0 4.8
66 -Iowa State 66 3.6 3.0 0.6
67 -East Carolina 65 2.8 3.0 -0.2
68 -North Carolina State 67 2.5 0.0 2.5
69 -Western Kentucky 71 -2.3 -5.0 2.7
70 -Pittsburgh 73 -2.5 -8.0 5.5
71 -UTSA 70 -2.6 -5.0 2.4
72 -Rice 72 -4.2 -6.0 1.8
73 -Nevada 76 -6.9 -11.0 4.1
74 -Duke 69 -7.5 -3.0 -4.5
75 -Tennessee 74 -7.5 -8.0 0.5
76 -Central Michigan 75 -13.5 -10.0 -3.5
77 -Purdue 77 -13.5 -11.0 -2.5
78 -Utah 82 -16.4 -18.0 1.6
79 -Minnesota 80 -17.6 -15.0 -2.6
80 -Troy 83 -17.9 -18.0 0.1
81 -Arkansas 78 -18.9 -12.0 -6.9
82 -Houston 84 -21.6 -18.0 -3.6
83 -Iowa 85 -22.6 -19.0 -3.6
84 -Marshall 87 -24.2 -22.0 -2.2
85 -Air Force 88 -24.6 -23.0 -1.6
86 -Connecticut 81 -26.4 -16.0 -10.4
87 -Wake Forest 79 -27.3 -14.0 -13.3
88 -Temple 89 -29.5 -23.0 -6.5
89 -North Texas 90 -29.9 -23.0 -6.9
90 -Miami-Ohio 86 -31.6 -20.0 -11.6
91 -Virginia 94 -32.2 -26.0 -6.2
92 -Indiana 96 -32.5 -28.0 -4.5
93 -Auburn 91 -33.7 -24.0 -9.7
94 -South Florida 95 -33.8 -27.0 -6.8
95 -California 93 -35.1 -25.0 -10.1
96 -Western Michigan 102 -35.3 -35.0 -0.3
97 -Texas State 97 -35.6 -29.0 -6.6
98 -Wyoming 100 -37.6 -31.0 -6.6
99 -Maryland 99 -38.1 -31.0 -7.1
100 -Colorado State 98 -39.1 -30.0 -9.1
101 -Buffalo 92 -40.6 -25.0 -15.6
102 -Memphis 103 -40.8 -35.0 -5.8
103 -Florida International 104 -42.7 -36.0 -6.7
104 -Kentucky 101 -47.1 -34.0 -13.1
105 -Florida Atlantic 105 -47.3 -37.0 -10.3
106 -UAB 107 -50.3 -41.0 -9.3
107 -New Mexico 112 -51.5 -47.0 -4.5
108 -UTEP 108 -51.6 -43.0 -8.6
109 -Washington State 106 -53.3 -40.0 -13.3
110 -Boston College 110 -54.8 -45.0 -9.8
111 -Illinois 109 -59.4 -44.0 -15.4
112 -Army 115 -60.1 -49.0 -11.1
113 -Hawaii 113 -61.5 -47.0 -14.5
114 -Eastern Michigan 111 -62.3 -46.0 -16.3
115 -Tulane 114 -64.0 -47.0 -17.0
116 -Kansas 116 -68.8 -51.0 -17.8
117 -UNLV 119 -69.6 -59.0 -10.6
118 -South Alabama 120 -72.0 -61.0 -11.0
119 -Akron 121 -72.6 -63.0 -9.6
120 -Idaho 117 -80.6 -54.0 -26.6
121 -Colorado 118 -85.2 -57.0 -28.2
122 -Southern Mississippi 124 -86.2 -68.0 -18.2
123 -New Mexico State 123 -86.8 -66.0 -20.8
124 -Massachusetts 122 -91.5 -64.0 -27.5

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